Great 30 minute segment on the economy in @AajKamranKhan's show today. Even if you do believe he may be a little biased, the data and insights of business leaders speak for themselves. The economic turnaround is well underway... (Thread)

Exports are growing - crossed $2bn in October. Local demand of basic commodities - cement, steel, fertilizer - and consumer durables - motorcycles, cars - are all consistently growing. When the Covid pandemic hit the world economy, Pakistan's decisions put us at an advantage.

Easing the lockdown early for the export sector, logistics, then construction, and the rest, supported by unprecedented support by the government. Low interest rates for borrowing to pay wages and TERF for new industrial investment, release of old refunds of sales tax, duty...

...drawbacks, DLTL, and income tax, led to a boost in business confidence. Textile exporters' order books are full until June next year. They are not able to accept orders because they're running at 110% of capacity.

This means export growth will sustain, heading towards its $26bn potential, and there will be incentive of businessmen to invest in capacity expansion. Over the next 5-7 years, $40bn is within reach.

Areas of future focus: agriculture, seeds, water reservoirs, energy sector, circular debt. Two private LNG terminals, private sector gas distribution companies being worked on. Renegotiation of IPP contracts has begun, and needs to continue.

Construction sector being leveraged to jump start the economy as well as provide affordable housing. Dozens of schemes are already on the ground. Many allied industries aIso benefitting, and jobs & disposable incomes being generated all round.

CPEC Authority has started work on all projects. That, work on dams, and the construction package have led to record cement offtake. 5.7m tones in October, following 5.3m tonnes in September, which was also a record.

Business leaders all sensing the opportunity, making investments, and seeing the next two quarters - barring Covid - as very positive. The Covid threat isn't to be taken lightly, though. It has the ability to derail everything.

Oil prices are falling. The Rupee is stable, even strengthing, and indications are that it continues to be undervalued even at 160. Reserves are growing. Inflation, which was expected to be 9:3%, was reported today at 8.9%. The data speaks for itself.

There is a shortage of labour in the textile and construction sectors, meaning lowel unemployment. Agriculture is benefitting from higher prices for their crops, lower cost of fertilizer - down from Rs2,100 in 2018 to Rs1,600 now, despite deval.

This quarter has seen record results in the corporate sector, with the stock market responding. All round positivity, AKD claims, the country's economy has revived even quicker than policy makers were expecting.

AKD also hinted upon a strategy being developed to tackle circular debt. He didn't say much, but appeared to be very excited and bullish about even that.

Industrial plots are being traded and investors are buying for expansion. AKD quoted Nooriabad as an example, where Industrial plots sold for 1.5 million Rupees an acre. Now, he says, no one wants to sell for 30 million. Indicating people are making money and going for expansion.

From being close to default, Pakistan is now meeting foreign debt repayment obligations, growing reserves, supported by increasing remittances. It's a positive trajectory and the next 8 months of the fiscal year look like being even better, InshaAllah.