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Here's a good turnout estimate for tomorrow
He has it at 160 m votes and 67% of eligible voters.
That's highest turnout as a % of the eligible population since 1900 & since women couldn't vote until 1920?
It will be the highest real turnout in US ever.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
He has it at 160 m votes and 67% of eligible voters.
That's highest turnout as a % of the eligible population since 1900 & since women couldn't vote until 1920?
It will be the highest real turnout in US ever.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
To put it in perspective? That's 27.5 Million additional voters.
DT lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3 Million votes.
How do you suppose 27.5 Million new Votes will split?
This is why I called this election weeks ago for Biden.
The math is simple.
DT lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3 Million votes.
How do you suppose 27.5 Million new Votes will split?
This is why I called this election weeks ago for Biden.
The math is simple.
Popular vote margin in midterms surged to almost +9 D on a record turnout. And that was a baby turnout surge compared to what's forecast for tomorrow.
I simply do not see were the votes are coming from for the GOP to counteract turnout at this level that's mad at the incumbent.
I simply do not see were the votes are coming from for the GOP to counteract turnout at this level that's mad at the incumbent.
Also,and this is key, I strongly believe that polling error can be a reflection of the skill level of the campaigns. In 2016? The HRC campaign was a shitshow and got the lowest vote % of any Democrat since 1992 (and in 1992 there was a credible 3rd party).
Let's add the follow-up thread: https://twitter.com/AmericanNumbers/status/1323454368402886658
