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2020 Prediction Thread: Biden wins. National Margin: Biden 53%, Trump 42%, Others 3% (54-43-3 when undecided are allocated).
I've used a simple model averaging top lines & internals from public polling in key categories (party, race, race/ed, age, gender). I also used averaging from public polls to try to get an accurate representation of the share of electorate by party, race, gender, education/race.
Wisconsin: Biden 52% Trump 43% Other 4%. Biden has led among whites in an avg of available polls. He wins the college ed white vote, seniors, women and minorities by double digits. He only loses the non-college white vote by 3. That’s a recipe for a 2008 style win.
I also trust Milwaukee to come through like they did in 2018. 1.89 million people have voted in Wisconsin, which is 63% of the total 2016 vote. I expect the total vote to be around 3.1 million, which would be about a 5.6% increase from 2016.
Michigan: Biden 54, Trump 43, Others 3
Biden has battled Trump to a draw among white voters (46-48) in the avg and his numbers have gotten stronger later in the cycle among whites. Like WI, he wins college ed white voters, women and seniors.
Biden has battled Trump to a draw among white voters (46-48) in the avg and his numbers have gotten stronger later in the cycle among whites. Like WI, he wins college ed white voters, women and seniors.
MI is a state where district level polls suggest a large double digit win in the offing, similar to 2008. 2.84 million people have voted in Michigan, which is about 59% of the total vote from 2016. I project that 4.98 million people will vote in Michigan in total.
Pennsylvania - Biden 53%, Trump 45%, Others 3. Despite all the noise and Trumper hackery, PA has been a fairly stable race. Like MI, Biden has battled Trump to a narrow margin among whites overall while winning women, college ed voters, seniors and minorities.
PA is another state where district level polling provides clarity as to Biden's strengths & Trump's weaknesses. District polls in metro Allentown, Harrisburg, Erie and even some rural areas, Biden is outperforming the 2016 results, and is more in line with Casey/Wolf '18.
PA is one of the few battleground states where a majority of the vote will be cast on e-day. Dems have to execute, but they're energized, unified and have indie support to win.
Florida: Biden 51, Trump 47, Others 2. Biden has had a lot of strong polls in FL, and the Dems EV has been solid enough to back up those numbers. The key is that Biden leads Indies by an avg of 10-12 points. If that holds up, Biden will win similar to Obama '08 win, or better.
Biden’s secret strength may be Central FL, where Trump has shown a lot of weakness. Overall, I think Dems + indies will be able to hold off an expected strong GOP turnout on e-day.
Biden will flip Pinellas, Duval, St. Lucie, & probably Monroe Counties. He will erode Trump margins in the red counties in the Central FL region from Sarasota to Volusia. 8.9 mill have voted in FL, (equal to the '16 total). I expect the total vote to be around 10.4-10.6 million.
NC: Biden 52, Trump 47, Others 1. JB has been better than Hillary/Cooper '08 w/college ed white voters. He's at 38%-40% avg White support. He has an electorate that is younger, more indie, less white + strength among Black voters. That gives Biden a shot at a 3 to 6 point win.
4.5 million have voted in NC, which is 96% of the ’16 total. About 80% of the vote is in. Dems will need to rely on Black voters to show up on e-day to offset the expected turnout of WWC voters, but all the evidence points to strong overall Dem turnout.
Arizona: Biden 52 Trump 47 Others 1. JB has held consistent leads in Maricopa (Phx), Pima County (Tucson) and has had a viable percentage in the rural areas, while leading indies by 14 (avg). That hasn’t changed much throughout the cycle despite some volatility in top line polls.
Dem EV turnout has been strong and with the help from Indies, Biden should be able to improve upon Sinema’s breakout win by a few points. 1.53 million have voted (98% of '16). I expect 1.9 mill or so to vote in total.
Georgia: Biden 51 Trump 48 Others 1. Biden has hit the 30% threshold among whites and is hovering around 90% among Black voters if you push undecided. That’s the formula for a win. Trump is underperforming Kemp among whites by 14 points. That’s the ballgame.
Black voters will need to show up to offset an expected surge among Trump voters, but there are a lot of Black voters left to cast ballots and they’re eager to vote. 3.9 million have voted in GA (94% of the ’16 total, 4.14 million). I’d expect around 4.7 million to vote in total.
Texas: Biden 51 Trump 49. This is a tough call & I fully concede Trump is the favorite in TX, but the EV & energy on the ground provides Dems the opportunity for the upset. This race is Beto v Cruz 2.0 except that Biden is outperforming Beto, and Trump is underperforming Cruz.
If the total vote in Harris County (Houston) gets to the 1.6-1.7 million range and Biden wins the county by a 60-39 margin or better, Biden has a path to narrowly win.
If he can also make incremental improvements in the last GOP firewall, Denton, Tarrant, Montgomery, Brazoria and Galveston counties, then he will win it. I’m going to be an optimist and bet on TX to go blue.
Right now, Trump is underperforming Cruz among whites & Latinos. If that holds, Biden will be more likely to win if he gets the numbers he needs out of Houston & Blue/Purple TX. 9.7 million people have voted in TX. TX sets a new precedent this year. 11 mill may end up voting.
Ohio: Biden 50 Trump 48. OH is an under the radar enigma, but the formula to win has emerged. Biden is at 43% white and upper 80s to low 90s among Black voters. Biden has also hit 37%-39% among non college whites, and 53% among college whites, resembling the Obama model.
OH Dems are fired up. Ballot return rates are excellent. About 3 million people have voted (56% of the ’16 total). I expect 5.8 million to vote.
Iowa: Biden 50 Trump 47. The race is a tie, and polls conflict more here than any other state. However, nearly 1 mill have already voted; 63% of Dems have cast ballots; Biden leads among Indies by an average of 6 points.
If Indies are leaning Dem, the GOP won’t have enough muscle to win a close race there. If Indies lean slightly GOP, then Trump probably wins.
There may be only 600k ballots left to cast (75% turnout) in IA. It’s hard for me to predict 80+ turnout in a state that didn’t get above 72% when Obama ran. I’m going to go with the trend and the polling averages and go with Joe.
