My final thread on Missouri related stuff.

TOPLINE RATINGS
Pres: Lean R
Gov: Lean R
SOS: Likely R
Treasurer: borderline Likely/Safe R
All other races: Safe R
House: Safe R, supermajority Likely R
Senate: Safe R, supermajority tossup

Morning Consult really threw a wrench into this writeup with their Biden +9 poll. However, I think that the race be around Trump 3-5% this year (probably a little D friendly but we'll see). A chance for an upset is not off the table.

Contrary to popular belief at the beginning of the cycle, Mike Parson will likely outrun Galloway (in my opinion). He's inoffensive where Trump is bombastic. I think we'll see around Parson 5-7%, but as I see it momentum is on Galloway's side right now. Upset still possible.

For row offices, the Republicans have a strong statewide bench. Yet, against all odds, Yinka Faleti has run an amazing campaign statewide, which pushes that race to Likely R.

I've changed two things from my last House ratings, moving HD 135 (Springfield) from Tossup to Tilt D and HD 44 (Columbia/Rural MO) from Likely R to Lean R. Everything else stays the same. I forecast 5 flips to Democrats... no offensive opportunities for Rs this cycle.

For Senate, my ratings stay the same. SD 15 (suburban STL) tilts D (BIASED SINCE I WORKED ON THE CAMPAIGN), and SD 19 (Columbia/rural MO) is something that I simply can't predict, no matter what the fundamentals tell me (which is that the race tilts D). Rowden is that strong.

For upset picks in the House, other than HD 100 (which I've been peddling for a while), I see Districts 30 and 89. Both are suburban, and both have monstrously strong R incumbents. But in a big enough wave, who knows? Rural sleeper races include HDs 48, 50, and 113.

In the Senate, there's really no upset potential here. SD 11 (working class/suburban KC) is really the only place where an R could compete, but it's uncontested this year. For Dems, SD 23 will not go D, but watching the margin to see if St. Charles is shifting is a good idea.

That's it for now. Thanks to everyone who has been following me this year, and I can't wait to see y'all tomorrow!

@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @ChazNuttycombe @NilesGApol @StephieTheLefty @7th_ET @MarquisGovan1 @henrytatkinson @Uncrewed @ibflorea @KennySchippler

and maybe it's a little greedy to ask, but if y'all have liked my content this year let's see if I can get to 900 followers before election day!