. @MattHancock was clear in his reply to @SteveBakerHW that lockdown *is* needed in tier 2+ areas such as Liverpool, where high levels of positive cases spiked by students have subsided but where cases in the >60s have stabilised at high levels.

Does this stack up? /1

http://Parliamentlive.tv  https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/ddd965d1-c949-4679-b735-eb4dc9c5b1da?in=18:47:21&out=18:49:41

/2

Cases overall peaked around a week before the Tier 3 restrictions were imposed on 14 October, and have dropped steadily ever since.

There is no obvious drop-off around a week after Tier 3 was introduced (infection => test).

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Liverpool

/3

Looking at age-breakdown, the reduction in <60 and student-ages is indeed dramatic, but there is also a significant fall off in the 60-69 age group; median age in ICU is 61 (see ICNARC report) so this should reduce admissions into hospitals.

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#cases-by-age

/4

Cases in over 60s drive admissions, hospital occupancy and deaths; in Liverpool, cases in >60s have reduced from c.85/day to c.55/day in the past 3 weeks, in a city of 500k residents.

/end