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1/9 There is a lot of the argument "lockdowns only delay deaths rather than reduce them" going around at the moment. There is also a lot "let's see the balance sheet" for direct v indirect #COVID__19 harms....
2/ I worry those making these points don't factor in two things: first, that lockdowns are introduced primarily to "stop health systems being overwhelmed" and second, what actually happens when a health system gets overwhelmed...
3/ I'm no expert but I've spent a good part of the last few years visiting places where health systems have collapsed and the scale of suffering that results are almost unimaginable ...
4/ Mums die in labour for want of the most basic interventions & meds, kids die of fevers and everyday injuries, people with serious psychosis are chained up or left to self-harm. Cancers, hip replacements, dialysis, treatment for stroke and heart attack ... dream on...
5/ One way of thinking what the UK might feel like if the NHS became overwhelmed and had to properly shut up shop is to look at what it barely manages to do now with 2.6 beds per 1000 people...
6/ Here are some stats, some old but a good ballpark:
- 1m patients every 36 hours
- 90m outpatient attendances a year
- 23m A&E visits
- 10m operations
- 100k mental health patients requiring a hospital bed
- 2.5m category A ambulance calls calls
- 1,772 births a day
- 1m patients every 36 hours
- 90m outpatient attendances a year
- 23m A&E visits
- 10m operations
- 100k mental health patients requiring a hospital bed
- 2.5m category A ambulance calls calls
- 1,772 births a day
7/ Most who argue that lockdowns do more harm than good point to missed cancer screenings and so on to make their case. What is being missed is that is potentially just the tip of iceberg - the balance sheet....
8/ If we let the virus rip in a 65m population where fewer than 10% have been exposed, all the NHS's beds would fill in a matter of weeks. Other essential services would collapse in its wake....
9/ When the PM talks of trying to advert a "human and moral" calamity, he's not worrying about mums giving birth without their partners and he's not kicking things down the road. He's worried about people giving birth with no medical help at all.
