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So I have been following #USElection2020 very closely last few weeks including listening to basically every episode of #Americast and @FiveThirtyEight podcasts.
FWIW here is my prediction and then a following thread with thinking and scenarios pushing the “toss ups” both ways. /1
FWIW here is my prediction and then a following thread with thinking and scenarios pushing the “toss ups” both ways. /1
So as you will see I am predicting a pretty big Biden win. This is based on what is about an average of about a 9-10 point national lead and polling in swing states and what seems to be massively increased enthusiasm and turnout from Democrats or anti-Trump republicans. /2
Vast majority of states are not in play on the Electoral College & will go same way as always (bloody FPTP so many votes won’t count).
Nearly all sources say 2 traditional swing states (& ones Trump scraped in 16) are not in play & Biden will win easily -Michigan & Wisconsin /3
Nearly all sources say 2 traditional swing states (& ones Trump scraped in 16) are not in play & Biden will win easily -Michigan & Wisconsin /3
The in play states this year are therefore:
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Texas
Arizona
*Note Trump won all of these in 16 and the bottom 3 are nearly always republican but polling shows neck and neck or Biden up in all /4
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Texas
Arizona
*Note Trump won all of these in 16 and the bottom 3 are nearly always republican but polling shows neck and neck or Biden up in all /4
So if you presume Michigan and Wisconsin go Biden (which every model says they will) Trump will need to win either all of these swing states or all but one of these (depending on size of state) to be re-elected. I just can’t se how that happens. Here is why... /5
The only if those i have seen Trump ahead in more polls than not are Iowa and Ohio and then it’s still close. So in my guess I gave them to Trump.
Texas is a big one & the second biggest EC state, polling shows it basically too close to call but on precaution I gave it Trump /6
Texas is a big one & the second biggest EC state, polling shows it basically too close to call but on precaution I gave it Trump /6
On all the other swing states Biden is up more than not, So I gave them all to Biden. And whilst I am aware Trump could well hold Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona as the closest in polling (Biden about 2/3 points up on average) it would need something very odd /7
for that to happen and even if it did, if Biden holds Pennsylvania (which he is +5 on average) you still get this. Which still means he has massively defied the polls with a larger polling error than 2016 and he still loses! /8
It is also plausible that #BidenHarris do slightly better than their polling because we get lots of @RVAT2020 and @ProjectLincoln (both accounts fab by the way) voters out and you get landslide which I think is just as possible as the above and you get something like this. /9
From what I have seen both Democrats & Independents are massively motivated and they see the damage Trump is doing both to the health of (Covid), the division (racism) of the nation and the future of the planet (climate denial) they will all be out & we will see big Biden win /10
So obviously I (and the many experts and polls who informed my thinking) could be wrong, and god knows have had some disappointing elections over the last few years, but I am relaxed about tomorrow and plan to sit up and watch it unfold as long as I can. /End
Ps. @doing_computer flagged to me I may have mixed up a couple of the safe states when playing with tool on my first actual prediction. Here is the map I meant to chose. The EC is basically the same but two now swing states switch hands. This is the one I am actually betting on
Pps. Since I did this thread I just read this from @FiveThirtyEight which I am happy to see supports where I am thinking especially on my point on Pennsylvania. Guess I picked the argument up on one of their podcasts 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/
