With 'scary' numbers from Anecdotal Andy bound to come Tues-Thurs this week, a few thoughts:

People get more colds in the Fall than Summer. No surprise that COVID cases rise in the Fall. But hospitalizations and deaths--while rising--are not rising proportionally

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It’s actually a VERY good thing many people are getting the Rona and not becoming seriously ill at a rate that matches case growth. This truth is something to celebrate, but you can’t sell fear if you tell people this.

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Measures of serious illness are rising—as expected—but not in an exponential hide under bed kinda way.

ICU admits/day have increased slightly, but increasing ICU occupancy is driven mostly by more severe fall/winter health issues so they are staying in ICU longer.

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KY is at 31% of ICU Occupancy with COVID. Our system is not overwhelmed. But ICU capacity should be at about 80% or more this time of year—that’s how you run a hospital. Fall/Winter is an ICU money maker because more people get sick from COVID and lots of other stuff.

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Our infection fatality rate, even after a slight rise in deaths, is still hovering around its lowest point ever.

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60% of KY deaths are still from LTC. And we have more active cases in LTC than ever, which means that higher death numbers are coming.

594 non-LTC care deaths to date. There have been 640 highway fatalities this year.

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C19 is most dangerous to those 80+. They account for 49.3% of all deaths in a population making up 2.4% of the state. Only 0.67% of those 80+ have died of C19 to date.

All of this while 100% of children are being harmed right now.

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