For the last four years, I've been clinging desperately to a very specific hope.

A hope that we, as a nation, are strong enough to NEVER let November 8, 2016 happen again.

A hope that, indeed, November 8, 2016 was basically the only time it ever COULD have happened. The one time we let our guard down and got woefully complacent.

A hope that if, by some weird-ass miracle, we'd been able to pull a mulligan and have some sort of Whoopsie-Doodle Do-Over Real Election on November 9th, 2016 (or any day since), Hillary would've won by a landslide.

But obviously, that's not how elections work (and nor should it be, in the grand scheme; way too many bad faith actors would abuse that shit) so, for FOUR FUCKING YEARS, we've been unable to adequately test that theory.

Until tomorrow.

Folks...I don't have to tell you how important tomorrow is.

After four years, three far-right SCOTUS judges and seemingly thousands of corruption scandals, tomorrow we just might finally find out whether or not November 8, 2016 was a fluke.

Once can be a fluke.

Twice, not so much.

Do we live in a country that made that particular horrendous fuckawful mistake once, and learned from it?

Or do we live in a country that just...IS that horrendous fuckawful mistake, and for some appalling reason proud of it?

Objectively, we do have reason to be hopeful, even if it doesn't seem like it.

The polls currently estimate that Biden has an 89% chance of winning. To put that in perspective, on November 7, 2016, the polls estimated HIllary had only a 71% chance of winning.

That may not necessarily seem like much of a difference, but when you flip it, it's a difference between a 29% chance of losing and an 11% chance of losing. By that metric, Trump has less than half as much chance as he had then. Closer to a third as much chance, in fact.

The polls in the four biggest upset states of 2016 - Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - are ALL reporting a better chance for Biden than they did for Hillary. Even if the same polling errors happen this year, it won't be enough to give Trump the victory.

FL 16 - 55% Hillary
FL 20 - 68% Biden

WI 16 - 83% Hillary
WI 20 - 94% Biden

MI 16 - 79% Hillary
MI 20 - 95% Biden

PA 16 - 77% Hillary
PA 20 - 85% Biden

(Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com )

And TEXAS AND GEORGIA are considered swing states now. Fucking Texas and Georgia!

Everyone's talking about Pennsylvania, but honestly...Biden MIGHT not even need Pennsylvania. Trump absolutely does.

Biden has some flexibility, and several potential paths to victory. Trump has basically ONE, and that is to win almost every last swing state.

Without Pennsylvania, Trump is sunk.

Without Florida, Trump is sunk.

Without Texas, Trump is REALLY sunk.

But, of course, I think it's fair to say that November 8, 2016 gave us ALL a sort-of Diet PTSD.

And no amount of logic or statistics can convince PTSD to just go away quietly. There are still reasons to worry, especially if you look for them.

For one thing, while the 2016 polling error wouldn't be enough this time around, an even BIGGER polling error is always possible. Not terribly likely, but possible.

And the pandemic has thrown voting systems into an unprecedented kind of chaos, making a red mirage (or, shit, even a blue mirage - Florida and North Carolina are both counting mail-in ballots first, which might give Biden an early lead he might not necessarily deserve) possible.

And, of course, NONE of this accounts for Trump's abject willingness to play dirty, or the GOP's abject willingness to let him.

And obviously he's got FAR more means to do so than he had last time, including a stacked SCOTUS.

And even if Biden DOES win...as we all know, the MAGA cult will not take it well.

It's gonna get ugly, and it's not gonna be fun.

And of course, after the colossal polling error of 2016, why trust the polls in the first place? They were wrong then, why wouldn't they be wrong now?

I get it. I absolutely 100% get it.

I'm not asking you to trust the polls.

Quite the opposite in fact.

I'm asking you - nay, BEGGING you - to get out there and VOTE tomorrow (if you haven't already) as though the polls were reversed.

No complacency allowed. America has been designated a Complacency-Free Zone.

Please, for the love of God, everybody, vote this motherfucker out.

I can't take four more years of this goddamn shit.