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Donald Trump needs something extraordinary in Pennsylvania. He's underwater in a way that he never quite was in 2016. And unlike then, district, state, and national polls *all* point to a Biden win.
My latest below, with @PVIGuy
, on why PA is likely D. http://www.politicalsalad.com/2020/11/state-analysis-pennsylvania.html
My latest below, with @PVIGuy
, on why PA is likely D. http://www.politicalsalad.com/2020/11/state-analysis-pennsylvania.html
With a solid lead in the Presidential race, an ever-shifting electorate that is getting increasingly bluer in the suburbs, and a massive reversion to the mean expected in favor of Democrats in the white working-class areas, the Keystone State appears primed to flip D on Tuesday.
To examine the gains expected in 2020, however, we must first understand just what went wrong for Hillary Clinton in 2016. District level polls flashed warning signs for her continuously, and the evaporation of WWC support ultimately doomed her. https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1323335720002416640
As in MI and WI, 2016 represented the absolute nadir for Dem performance in the state, as Hillary Clinton was blown out of the water when it came to white working-class voters all over the map. Compare it to 2012, where Obama held his own in these areas. https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1323335710993084416?s=20
This was best manifested in the electoral slippage shown in highly elastic counties like Fayette (E 66.1) and Washington (E 57.8), which Clinton lost by 30 and 25, respectively, just four years after Obama lost them by 8 and 14 points.
But Clinton still only lost by < 1%, as suburban gains in highly elastic counties like Chester (E 60.9) and Montgomery (E 54.0) kept her afloat and competitive in the state; Obama lost the former by under a percent and won the latter by 14, but Clinton won them by 9 and 21,
Alarmingly for the GOP, the suburban swing accelerated in 2018, with Tom Wolf winning Chester by 24 and Montgomery by 36, and there is little polling-based evidence to believe that this is reverting to even 2016 levels anytime soon.
We know this, because an internal poll of Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, containing the moderately elastic suburban county Lehigh (E 44.1), showed Biden up by 15 points in a district Clinton won by only 1.1.
With suburban swings like these, if Biden was just to hold Clinton's abysmal 2016 margins with the white working-class counties while performing at 2018 levels with suburban voters, he would easily carry the state.
But the elasticity of counties like Lackawanna (E 60.6) suggest that Biden may gain significantly in these areas as compared to 2016, especially given the significantly more Democratic environment of 2020. PA-08 was Trump +9.6, but an internal found it as Biden +2.
Bob Casey's win in 2018 may not be too far off from what a potential Biden victory may resemble. Although Biden would almost certainly not carry the state by a 13 point margin, continued suburban gains and clawing back WWC ground from 2016 would fuel a win https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1323335724146388993
The President is playing whack-a-mole in trying to prevent suburban bleeding while avoiding losses in white working-class areas, and there's no evidence to believe he's succeeding. At this point, a Biden loss in the state would be more shocking than Trump's 2016 win.
Likely D.
Likely D.
cc @JMilesColeman @EScrimshaw @SenhorRaposa @hjessy_ @HydeVoltyge @umichvoter99 @IRussell729 @RuralChrisLee @lexkypol @NilesGApol @StephieTheLefty
@7th_ET @kilometerbryman @PolitiCatGrump @christos_ioa @nickroberts317
@7th_ET @kilometerbryman @PolitiCatGrump @christos_ioa @nickroberts317
