When @Plaid_Cymru raised the prospect of the pandemic boosting support for Welsh independence today, they had a point.

Not so much the politics of it all, or the ups and downs of Boris Johnson’s premiership. But the way this pandemic fundamentally alters the Welsh psyche. 1/

Not for generations has the border between England & Wales had any real physical significance. Sure, a few differences in policies either side, such as free prescriptions in Wales or teaching Welsh in schools. But without road signs you’d often never know you’d crossed. 2/

But as the Welsh First Minister said today, the border is now harder than it’s been in centuries. The law carves a physical divide between Eng and Wales. You cannot cross.

In a way it hasn’t done since the 16th century, Wales perceives itself as a physically separate nation. 3/

And there is evidence that support for independence has been creeping up during the pandemic. Sure, it’s a way off a majority. But it is possible that Covid-19 will irreversibly alter Wales’s sense of itself, its confidence to go its own way. 4/

All of that would be supercharged by Scottish independence, which is a far greater possibility in the short term. Labour-leaning Wales would find itself annexed to Conservative-leaning England (unless politics takes a radical turn). 5/

At that point, even the unionist Mark Drakeford admitted to me recently that the union would have to be reassessed. He didn’t rule out supporting Welsh independence in those circumstances.

It’s a fascinating chat for anyone interested in Wales’s future: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/acting-prime-minister/id1452702407?i=1000491587847

Really interested to hear what people in Wales make of it all...

Lots of people flagging this, which formed the basis of Plaid Cymru’s question to the PM today. Large increase in membership of @YesCymru in recent days - up by around 20-30% in 3 days. https://twitter.com/yescymru/status/1323324493247500289