THREAD MN EIPV/VBM Statistics - 11/2 Update.
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(1)

(2) There is some INTERESTING & NEW data (to me) that I've come across on voter registrations that will help Trump BIGLY!!! Let me dissect that a bit later on, but just wanted to call your attention to it, so you know it's in the thread. First, the graphic and my race calls.

(3) CD 1 - Southern MN - HOLD for Republicans/Hagedorn and +13,421 is the margin banked in here and that's plenty good enough to make the call with Trump sitting on 36K more votes to bring out tomorrow than Biden.

(4) CD 2 - SE TC Metro, SE MN - we got +2,000 additional banked in here (thank Walz for the stupid mistake on the Rochester rally) and now have +22,000 vote margin banked. Dems have 18,333 more votes to turn out, but crossover and the margin already banked = REPUB. FLIP to Craig.

(5) CD 3 - Western Henn. County, Mpls West Suburbs - We have 40K vote margin banked, and 4,867 votes more for Trump to bring out tomorrow than Biden. This will be one to watch. Phillips will probably have a DEM HOLD for this, but he won't do it by the 40K margin on the board..

(6)... If Phillips lead in CD 3 craters down to under 20K, its a danger sign that Biden won't have any possibility to carry MN. If it goes under 10K, then you need to consider a Trump landslide that grabs NV and NH and WI/MN/PA would all be safe for Trump.

(7) CD 4 and 5 Mpls/St. Paul- +13K margin banked in here since Friday, so Biden has now reached HRC's totals from 4 years ago. Note: I may not be accounting for D to Trump crossover aggressively enough, so the totals here are probably on the Biden-favoring side. DEMS HOLD BOTH.

(8) CD 6 North TC Metro - This was always going to be a good one for Republicans. +5,400 added to the vote margin bank that is 68K now and 25K more votes for Trump to turn out here than Biden. Looking good for Emmer to HOLD for Republicans.

(9) CD 7 - SW to NW MN - Added in almost 4,000 to the margin bank and 54K margin as of now. 44K more votes for Trump to turn out tomorrow over Biden -- Fishbach will FLIP this one for the Republicans

(10) CD 8 - Iron Range - Added in another 900+ to the vote margin bank. Now over 14K and Trump has 39K votes more than Biden to turn out tomorrow. Stauber will HOLD this one and the flips to red among many of the Iron Range counties should happen!

(11) Now the juicy tidbit -- I went back and checked the voter registration on Oct 1, 2020 and compared to October 2016 and compared Oct 2016 to Oct 2012. I was trying to get a sense of the voter registration in each 4 year span. The results are EXTREMELY SURPRISING.

(12) What this tells us is that in the last 4 year election cycle up through Oct 2016, we had 90K new voter registrations in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, & 41K in the 5 counties that combine with these 2 to make up the Twin Cities, and a paltry 4K registrations outstate....

(13) ...Now look next column over.... Numbers for election cycle we are in right now. 89K new voter registrations outstate which is a 85K swing over 4 years ago. Twin Cities Metro and Hennepin/Ramsey both have massive shortfalls in the voter registration pace...

(14)... This is hugely significant because it tells us that Dem turnout in Hennepin/Ramsey County may not be all that great tomorrow, as they may have maxed out their registered voter pool....

(15)... But, looking at the first line, A TON of new voters are outstate for Trump to get to the polls. There is a net +200K in voter registration shifts here towards GOP/Trump. If that -> margin banking of most of the 85K new voters and low Dem turnout tomorrow, Trump wins.

(16) I went back and recalibrated my Dem -> Trump and Repub ->Biden crossover numbers even more microscopically. I still am erring on the side of underestimating both types of crossover, so Trump may well get more of a margin, and Biden less than I've forecasted.

(17) Taking a look at the Blue Cells, first line... Biden is only 11K ahead of Trump in terms of votes to be turned out tomorrow. If you think Biden and the Dems won't get all of those votes out (which is probably likely), that makes it easier for Trump. Watch CD3 as I said...

(18)... Second Blue line -- Trump has 157K advantage over Biden in outstate vote to turn out. I've assumed Trump has an ED margin of around 145K to turn out (assuming Biden meets his goals in the TC metro)... At 80% turnout, that is 116K vote margin...

(19).... As I said last time, I gave 3% of the vote away to Kanye and Jorgenson and other -- so 155K votes remain for Trump to get out of that pool from 2016. 80% turnout and 50% margin (70R, 20D, 10 other) gives us 62K margin...

(20)... Last line is New voters and Higher Rural Turnout and Crossover -- that's at 125K votes with 90% turnout here and 35% margin (55R, 30D, 15 oth), we get 39K out of this in margin...

(21).. It all adds up to Trump getting 218K margin tomorrow to add to his 172K already banked to get to 390K and Biden has 361K, so a win of 29K or 0.96%. That's if we get 3M votes overall.

(22)... If we get closer to 3.1M and most of the extra turnout is in Trump favorable buckets -- I estimate Trump could win by 81K votes or 2.6%

(23) -- It would take a big underperform by Trump's turnout and a high R to Biden crossover and high overperform by Biden in turning out Dem voters. Somehow, I doubt all three will happen, so I put Trump's chances of winning MN at 70%. If numbers drop tomorrow, stay tuned here.

(24) Thank you to all of my supporters. I loved doing this work for you and I'll try to post after the election from time to time and you'll see me in 2022 and 2024, maybe with more states to analyze. RT & Follow for updates and GET OUT AND VOTE IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO!