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1. Another devastating attack in Kabul and the latest example of a multifront war in Afghanistan between the government, Taliban, & ISKP. Answers are abundant, solutions are rare, but some rhetoric is unproductive. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1323249079347007493
2. Conflating a US desire to withdraw from a 20 year conflict as dictating terms to Kabul is detached from reality. The majority of Americans support a withdrawal & the US’s net impact is far from positive even if success stories exist.
3. Portraying the Taliban & ISKP as two sides of the same coin is analytically incorrect even if both groups commit shocking violence. Equally unhelpful are calls for retributive rather than transitional justice in a 40 yr conflict w/ shocking human rights abuses on all sides.
4. Is the proximate cause of an uptick in Taliban-led violence in Helmand/Kandahar, targeted killings, & ISKP terror attacks rooted in organizational reactions to US troop withdrawals & intra-Afghan talks? Sure. But the WHY is a lot more complex.
5. Perhaps an ascendant Taliban is overplaying its hand or a polyhierarchical structure makes command & control difficult. Or perhaps the Taliban assume a Biden admin will back away from the Doha agreement & they see an opportunity to consolidate military victories in the south.
6. But platitudes about Afghan-led solutions that pretend that Afghanistan isn't a rentier state or ignore legitimate & nefarious regional interests in an ultimate outcome achieve little. The US is a participant & not a bystander. Its position never reflected a supporting role.
7. Pointing to a US withdrawal as the fundamental cause of bloodshed while ignoring that violence soared during the US military’s surge is analytically flawed. Refusing to hold the ANA & ANP accountable for corruption & incompetence bc the Taliban are worse is counterproductive.
8. Equally short-sighted would be foregoing a future aid model for Afghanistan that ensures that the government & civil society is not left in the cold. But what's needed most now from DC is an acceptance that we got to this point bc US troops cannot dictate outcomes.
