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1/ Only two days to go until the most imporant election of this decade #USElections2020
Who will win? #Trump vs #Biden
Time for an analysis.
Time to place some bets. Odds offer huge value.
Bets at the end of the thread.
Lets go
Who will win? #Trump vs #Biden
Time for an analysis.
Time to place some bets. Odds offer huge value.
Bets at the end of the thread.
Lets go
2/ Bookmakers like @pokershares or @BetfairExchange have Trump around 2.9 at the moment.
Odds of 2.9 = winning prohability of ~ 35%
I have Trump around 70-80%, which means there is huge value at those prices!
Odds of 2.9 = winning prohability of ~ 35%
I have Trump around 70-80%, which means there is huge value at those prices!
3/ Disclaimer: Even though I believe betting odds offer a huge value, only bet money you can afford to lose.
If you wanna play it safe, just buy #Bitcoin
, #Gold and #Silver. Thats what I do with most of my networth.
Those three will win no matter what.
If you wanna play it safe, just buy #Bitcoin
, #Gold and #Silver. Thats what I do with most of my networth.Those three will win no matter what.
4/ No matter what happens on Tuesday night, only one thing is for sure.
They will keep printing money.
#Bitcoin and #Gold will win no matter what.
I will use all my potential betting winnings to stack some sats. #Bitcoin
They will keep printing money.
#Bitcoin
and #Gold will win no matter what.I will use all my potential betting winnings to stack some sats. #Bitcoin
5/ You might wonder why I would put any money on #Trump while pollmakers got #Biden as a clear winner?
Well... do you remember 2016?
They got wrong big time in 2016 and it might happen again!
That what happens if the polls are not made by independent firms but media corporates.
Well... do you remember 2016?
They got wrong big time in 2016 and it might happen again!
That what happens if the polls are not made by independent firms but media corporates.
6/ So before we place some bets, lets look at a few hard facts and poll makers who got it right last time and what they predict for #USElections2020 .
First of Kevin McCullough, who smashed the 2016 result and sees a clear Trump win once again. https://twitter.com/KMCRadio/status/1313290075141279748
First of Kevin McCullough, who smashed the 2016 result and sees a clear Trump win once again. https://twitter.com/KMCRadio/status/1313290075141279748
7/ Same goes for @StatesPoll who got 2016 right and once again shows a solid lead for Trump.
BTW one needs to 270 to win.
You find several other predcitions like this, e.g. from @trafalgargroup.
https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1322916051940593666
BTW one needs to 270 to win.
You find several other predcitions like this, e.g. from @trafalgargroup.
https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1322916051940593666
8/ At the end of the day it will come down to some battelground states like Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa.
And we see a clear trend in all of those, they are going for #Trump!
And we see a clear trend in all of those, they are going for #Trump!
9/ Early Voting:
Democrats usually do early voting while Republicans turn up on Election Day.
And Trump is doing very well in ealry voting in all those battle ground states, even better than in 2016! That is not supposed to happen.
See Florida: https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1322624218224189441
Democrats usually do early voting while Republicans turn up on Election Day.
And Trump is doing very well in ealry voting in all those battle ground states, even better than in 2016! That is not supposed to happen.
See Florida: https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1322624218224189441
10/ "Shy voters/ silent majority"
"shy Trump voters" (people afraid to tell a stranger on the phone they support Trump)
According to @trafalgar_group Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania go to Trump because of "shy voters". https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1322948725929627649?s=20
"shy Trump voters" (people afraid to tell a stranger on the phone they support Trump)
According to @trafalgar_group Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania go to Trump because of "shy voters". https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1322948725929627649?s=20
11/ - The number one hidden voter is an upper income woman who has childen. Many women have bought guns. Gun owners often vote Republican
- Lockdowns are a big issue; many who do not like Trump hate lockdowns more (like youth)
- More undecideds breaking for Trump than Biden
- Lockdowns are a big issue; many who do not like Trump hate lockdowns more (like youth)
- More undecideds breaking for Trump than Biden
12/ Black and Hispanics are shifting big time to #Trump.
How ironically would it be if black and hispanic voters turn it around for the alleged racist Trump.
Blacks voting #Trump 2016: 15%
Blacks voting #Trump 2020: ~36%
How ironically would it be if black and hispanic voters turn it around for the alleged racist Trump.
Blacks voting #Trump 2016: 15%
Blacks voting #Trump 2020: ~36%
13/ Last but not least, I can`t remember so much enthusiasim for a political candidate during my lifetime.
Whil Biden struggles to gather more than 100 people, people come out in crazy numbers for #Trump.
Look at this, this happened all over the country during the past weeks.
Whil Biden struggles to gather more than 100 people, people come out in crazy numbers for #Trump.
Look at this, this happened all over the country during the past weeks.
15/ Trump in Pennsylvania, one of those swing states that might decide it all.
#Trump2020 managed to create the biggest and most euphoric political movement of our time.
Few seem to understand it.
#Trump2020 managed to create the biggest and most euphoric political movement of our time.
Few seem to understand it.
16/ Even in California, a democrate powerhouse, big crowds are floating the streets supporting Trump.
That is truly historically. History in the making.
So you get the message, the silent majority is real ;)
#Trump2020LandslideVictory https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1320449620808523776
That is truly historically. History in the making.
So you get the message, the silent majority is real ;)
#Trump2020LandslideVictory https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1320449620808523776
17/ Meanwhile at a #Biden event.
Makes you wonder who is actually in charge ;)
Joe, get the the fuck out here!
https://twitter.com/m1dn7ghtrider/status/1322607716804812800
Makes you wonder who is actually in charge ;)
Joe, get the the fuck out here!
https://twitter.com/m1dn7ghtrider/status/1322607716804812800
18/ At this moment, it's all adding up to a Trump electoral landslide. #RedWave2020
- Early Voting
- Shy Voters
- Blacks and Hispanics
- Swing States
- Non main stream Pools
- Large Trump rallies packed with euphoric voters
Time to place some big value bets!
- Early Voting
- Shy Voters
- Blacks and Hispanics
- Swing States
- Non main stream Pools
- Large Trump rallies packed with euphoric voters
Time to place some big value bets!
19/ Bets:
I will bet big time at those odds on #Trump2020.
Main bet:
Stake 50/10 on Trump @ 2.9
*Dont forget there are no sure things in betting. Place your stake accordingly.
50/10 is still only a fraction of my #Bitcoin holdings.
I will bet big time at those odds on #Trump2020.
Main bet:
Stake 50/10 on Trump @ 2.9
*Dont forget there are no sure things in betting. Place your stake accordingly.
50/10 is still only a fraction of my #Bitcoin
holdings.
20/ Electoral College Votes Bets: @bwin_de
Republicans over 250,5 @ 2.1: Stake 10/10
(This bet is even won if Trump loses)
Republicans over 300,5 @ 3.75 10/10
Popular Vote: Unsure about this one, so only low stakes.
Trump @ 5 - 2/10
Republicans over 250,5 @ 2.1: Stake 10/10
(This bet is even won if Trump loses)
Republicans over 300,5 @ 3.75 10/10
Popular Vote: Unsure about this one, so only low stakes.
Trump @ 5 - 2/10
21/ State betting
Trump to win
Arizona @ 2,2 10/10
Florida @ 1,7 10/10
Michigan @ 4,05 5/10 (huge value)
Nevada @ 3,66 5/10
New Hampshire @ 4,25 3/10
North Carloina @ 2 5/10
Wisconsin @ 3,75 2/10
All bets place at @bwin_de or @pokershares
Trump to win
Arizona @ 2,2 10/10
Florida @ 1,7 10/10
Michigan @ 4,05 5/10 (huge value)
Nevada @ 3,66 5/10
New Hampshire @ 4,25 3/10
North Carloina @ 2 5/10
Wisconsin @ 3,75 2/10
All bets place at @bwin_de or @pokershares
22/ Last but not least a few bets on the #senate.
Republicans over 50 seats @ 3 - 8/10
Republicans to win Arizona @ 4,25 - 4/10
Republicans to win Michigan @ 3 - 3/10
Republicans to win North Carolina @ 2,2 - 3/10
Republicans over 50 seats @ 3 - 8/10
Republicans to win Arizona @ 4,25 - 4/10
Republicans to win Michigan @ 3 - 3/10
Republicans to win North Carolina @ 2,2 - 3/10
23/ This is it. 
Lets see how things play out!
I think there is a decent chance for a #RedWave2020 and a #Landslide2020Trump.
Those odds above are simply value from a numbers perspective.
And I like to place value bets whether it is on #bitcoin or #Trumop.
Lets see how things play out!
I think there is a decent chance for a #RedWave2020 and a #Landslide2020Trump.
Those odds above are simply value from a numbers perspective.
And I like to place value bets whether it is on #bitcoin
or #Trumop.
24/ I truly believe if Bidens wins, #TheGreatReset will come to a place near you sooner than you can imagine.
So this is more than just a four year election. A lot is on the line.
But that is a story for another thread and another day.
So this is more than just a four year election. A lot is on the line.
But that is a story for another thread and another day.
