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(1/x) Monday update to cases and R(t) estimates. Starting with a reminder of last Thursday's Nowcast, predicting an R(t) for England of 1.12... https://twitter.com/stevebrown2856/status/1321851205337964545?s=20
(2/x) Here's today's update. Observed point R(t) is 1.02, so Thursday's "Nowcast" was pessimistic (too high) by 0.1. Seems this is due to a reduction in reporting lag; most results now being published within 3 days. Nowcast R(t) for Thursday is 1.06 (likely range 0.99 to 1.26).
(3/x) Regional trends in R(t), 4 regions now below 1.0 based on observed data:
(4/x) Regional trends in cases, corrected for testing rate. London on course to drop below the South West (!!):
(5/x) Top 50 week-on-week rises in case rates by Lower Tier Local Authority:
(6/x) Top 50 week-on-week falls in case rates by Lower Tier Local Authority:
(7/x) New chart: Top 50 observed R(t) by Lower Tier Local Authority:
(8/x) New chart: Bottom 50 observed R(t) by Lower Tier Local Authority:
(9/x) Whole-UK cases by report date (lowest total today since 19/10, 2 weeks ago):
(10/x) The total number of patients in hospital with COVID in England *fell* yesterday, for the first time since 5th September. I don't think there's any lagging with this data.
(11/x) Most optimistic scenario from SAGE showed an estimated 1,000 COVID deaths/day in the UK in three weeks time.
3 weeks ago, 16k cases/day gave us c. 220 deaths/day today.
So, we would need 72k cases today to make 1,000 likely in 3 weeks.
Actual 7 day average is 22.7k.
3 weeks ago, 16k cases/day gave us c. 220 deaths/day today.
So, we would need 72k cases today to make 1,000 likely in 3 weeks.
Actual 7 day average is 22.7k.
