1) Our Analysis of Pennsylvania

VOTER REGISTRATION

Trump won PA by 44,292 in 2016.

Since 2016, Republicans have closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 (549,547 since 2008). This is significant.
2) A JP Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy chart estimated that a D-R change of 218,635 for Republicans from 2016 could mean a 314,482 victory for Trump in 2020.

So Trump should exceed the 44K margin of 2016, perhaps significantly.
3) POLLS

Some polls show Trump behind, but several pollsters who were accurate in 2016 show Trump doing well:

Trafalgar: Trump +1.9%
Big Data Poll: Even at 48-48.
Matt Towery (IA/AG): Trump +1.3

In addition, AtlasIntel: Trump +1.1

We see a trump win in PA by 1-2%.
You can follow @PollWatch2020.
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