Here's my #Election2020 5 things to know (maps at end)

1. DJT will win FL
As I've noted to @SeanTrende ppl confuse small margins for uncertain outcomes. DJT will lose Pinellas but D weakness in Miami Dade will bolster very narrow win

2. Biden will shock us all & win GA

(1/n)

GA is demographically perfect for '20: the truly unbelievable growth of ATL & its suburbs make it ideal for the college white PMC D coalition to blaze run up insane margins. The psychological hit to GOP of losing GA will be massive

3. Both GAs go to runoff
How can this be?

Biden winning GA is predicated on not just 30 year old white carpetbaggers, but Buckhead LuluLemon moms hating Trump to a degree that borders on pathologic

...enough of them split that Perdue & Loeffler *very narrowly* avoid an existential disaster for GOP

4. Ernst wins IA

This isn't just Selzer poll. In '18 IA was D+4 in a D+9 year...IA may be elastic but its not GA

5. NC is most interesting race of the year. Every smart R assures me the race has turned for Tillis but...I'm very very skeptical

Unless Rs come out huge tomorrow, making up ~65% of Eday turnout and pushing their overall turnout to north of 75%, I have trouble seeing him win

My map has him winning but this is gonna be unbelievably tight

Bonus 6. The EV #s in the rust belt are very weird. Every single non-Trafalger poll shows Biden comfortably up in WI/MN/MI. But the EVs just aren't there

Does this portend a '16 redux??

Doubtful, but if it happens, the lack of robust EV/VBM is going to be the culprit

Presidential map https://www.270towin.com/maps/d7X64 

Senate Map https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qjG3mM