On November 2nd, a short thread on the difference between Biden support and Trump support.

1)

Last winter, I had a hard time finding any actual Biden Democrats. It was easy to find enthusiastic Sanders supporters; Buttigieg supporters; Warren supporters. Even Klobuchar. Biden, whew, that was not easy.

(But I found a few! Thanks @BurdsIVue and @SFrankel2015)

2)

Anyway. Everything changed with South Carolina. The party dropped the internecine stuff and became focused on winning. Some Dems are convinced it will be a big win, and roughly any Dem could have won. Others are sweating constantly.

3)

Many Dems seem to have warmed to Biden - at least his basic decency, if not his full slate of politics. But there's something about this that strikes me as healthy.

We are in an era of cult politics, and Biden represents the opposite.

4)

The problem is, beating a cult political figure is difficult. Romney had no cult-like following, and got blown out. As did McCain.

Obama fans: I'm not saying you're mindless. I'm comparing the intensity of love and support for the candidate.

5)

Most of the time, intense political love leads to disappointment. But that devotion is almost unbreakable on election day. The question is, how large is the cult following?

Obama won big because he had intense devotion, and a lot of respect from voters who were on the fence.

6)

Trump has no such respect from, essentially, anyone who is not in the cult. But the level of devotion within Trumpland is more intense than anything we've seen in recent politics.

Which leads me to: identity politics.

7)

Trump voters love to rail against identity politics, while failing to see that the Trump supporting identity is the strongest political identity in the country. It's almost impossible to get away from it. Trump's actions have nearly no result. Everything he does is worshiped.

8)

It wasn't that way with Obama. His actions mattered, even to his strongest supporters.

This is new. It's a total contrast to Biden, who inspires very little deep love, and more simple pragmatism. Which might be healthier! I don't know.

9)

So why do people put massive flags on their houses for Trump? Why do they shut down bridges and conduct boat parades? Why do they pack rallies to see him?

Cult identity politics. It's the core of who they are.

Biden's modest, safer-by-design rallies are different.

10)

Where do we go from here? I have no idea. Trump could win this week. He could lose. If he loses, his supporters will have to decide how to channel their political voice.

I'm not savvy enough to predict how that looks.

end)