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The halfway point of the season seems like a good time to revisit the May superflex rookie rankings.
This will be a thread explaining my May rookie rankings vs @DLFootball's May ADP.
What was the rationale, was it a mistake? Let's dive in.
This will be a thread explaining my May rookie rankings vs @DLFootball's May ADP.
What was the rationale, was it a mistake? Let's dive in.
Cam Akers, 1.01, RB1
ADP - 1.07, RB5
Grade: Bulletproof
I do not think that Cam Akers was the most talented RB in this class, that honor goes to D'Andre Swift, but Cam Akers was set up in a smash spot with a wide open depth chart. (ie. no established veteran ahead of him)
ADP - 1.07, RB5
Grade: Bulletproof
I do not think that Cam Akers was the most talented RB in this class, that honor goes to D'Andre Swift, but Cam Akers was set up in a smash spot with a wide open depth chart. (ie. no established veteran ahead of him)
I was much higher on him than consensus. I kept telling the patrons that they simply MUST trade down from CEH and JT to get into Cam Akers and D'Andre Swift in their rookie drafts.
Here was a patrons only article explaining the Cam Akers 1.01 reasoning. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1roQE1BjlZIKFPojvWQfmQCXLPYwYD7uYc330iy3marA/edit?usp=sharing
There was also this patrons only discussion regarding the differences between Akers and Vaughn as it was pointed out they share a lot of the same metrics (that I dont really use). https://docs.google.com/document/d/1n57iUTkCVvFESSs5dRywMiL3cxHS-KR-LObzqZCn3pM/edit?usp=sharing
So far in the NFL Cam Akers has been exactly what we expected from an efficiency perspective. He makes people miss and creates for himself.
He has a 29.6% juke rate and a 2.59 yards created per touch PRIOR to his week 8 outing per @rotounderworld
He has a 29.6% juke rate and a 2.59 yards created per touch PRIOR to his week 8 outing per @rotounderworld
Unfortunately he doesn't have enough touches to qualify but if he did it would place him at RB11 and RB3 respectively
Darrell Henderson by contrast has gotten pretty much exactly what has been blocked
Juke rate 14.6% and Yards created per touch 1.14
RB47 and RB30 respectively
Darrell Henderson by contrast has gotten pretty much exactly what has been blocked
Juke rate 14.6% and Yards created per touch 1.14
RB47 and RB30 respectively
AND then, he did this yesterday. 
https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1323051512394850310?s=20
https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1323051512394850310?s=20
It should also be noted that he saw 14 carries in week 1 and then took the first 3 handoffs in week 2 as the starter before going down with a rib cartilage separation which has derailed his season so far.
It appeared he was well on his way to the staring role and a prominent rookie season.
I view this as a speed bump on the way to a stardom and am buying Akers everywhere.
I view this as a speed bump on the way to a stardom and am buying Akers everywhere.
The fact that Darrell Henderson has been producing like he has despite creating very little for himself tells me that Cam Akers is going to be special once he is fully recovered and back in the saddle as the teams RB1.
Outlook: Doubledown. Kid's a stud.
Outlook: Doubledown. Kid's a stud.
D'Andre Swift,1.02, RB2
ADP - 1.06, RB4
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP - 1.06, RB4
Grade: Bulletproof
Swift was my 1.01 in all formats prior to the draft. Landing in Detroit was a bit of a concern in that Kerryon Johnson had been pretty good in the NFL his first two seasons when he was healthy.
Therefore, I didnt think Swift would take full control of the backfield in 2020.
Therefore, I didnt think Swift would take full control of the backfield in 2020.
However, I view Swift as the highest ceiling RB in this class by a fairly high margin based on his pass catching ability.
We must remember that Swift was a part-time player at Georgia because they use that as a recruiting https://twitter.com/RayGQue/status/1212518362921807872?s=20
We must remember that Swift was a part-time player at Georgia because they use that as a recruiting https://twitter.com/RayGQue/status/1212518362921807872?s=20
Here are the top 3 RB's in football in terms of market share of receiving yards in college.
As a part-timer Swift was above average every year he played in college.
As a part-timer Swift was above average every year he played in college.
Here is Swift compared to the other good rookie RB's.
Please remember that Swift was a part-time player in college.
Please remember that Swift was a part-time player in college.
On the ground Swift is in the same wheel house as the others in terms of @GrahamBarfield 's yards created data.
So when we combine similar ground efficiency and superior receiving ability we have the most complete weapon in the class and the highest ceiling RB.
So when we combine similar ground efficiency and superior receiving ability we have the most complete weapon in the class and the highest ceiling RB.
and now we have Swift taking over the Detroit backfield already.
Per Coop in the patrons chat...
Per Coop in the patrons chat...
JK Dobbins,1.03, RB3
ADP - 1.05, RB3
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP - 1.05, RB3
Grade: Bulletproof
JK Dobbins was my RB3 because he was tied to a 23 year old QB coming off an MVP season.
This offense is probably going to be effective for a long time and the main beneficiary is going to be JK Dobbins.
This offense is probably going to be effective for a long time and the main beneficiary is going to be JK Dobbins.
Why wasn't he higher? Lamar Jackson.
haha Its kind of funny to say, but Lamar is both a blessing and a curse for fantasy RB's. His presence is going to make Dobbins highly effective on the ground, but Lamar just isn't going to be throwing many passes to the RB position.
haha Its kind of funny to say, but Lamar is both a blessing and a curse for fantasy RB's. His presence is going to make Dobbins highly effective on the ground, but Lamar just isn't going to be throwing many passes to the RB position.
Passing game work is a staple of superstar fantasy backs and I don't believe Dobbins is going to have that luxury to pad his stats.
This gives him an incredibly high floor, but unfortunately his situation doesn't give him the ceiling for "break fantasy" type seasons.
This gives him an incredibly high floor, but unfortunately his situation doesn't give him the ceiling for "break fantasy" type seasons.
The other problem is that we couldn't count on him for year 1 production as Mark Ingram was likely going to command a large role.
And that is exactly how we've seen it play out.
And that is exactly how we've seen it play out.
Then Mark Ingram missed week 8 and JK Dobbins split carries with Gus the Bus, 15 to 16.
Dobbins went for 113 yards at 7.5 a pop. As expected they combined for 1 catch for 8 yards.
Dobbins went for 113 yards at 7.5 a pop. As expected they combined for 1 catch for 8 yards.
Thus far, Dobbins has excelled at creating for himself with a 25% juke rate and 2.50 yards created per touch. That puts him at RB17 and RB3 respectively.
Outlook: Gimme.
He is bankable as a mid-range to back end RB1 as soon as 2021.
He is bankable as a mid-range to back end RB1 as soon as 2021.
This is going to take all week. Ill add more guys periodically.
I plan to get through the top 27 (because that was the end of a tier) this week. haha
I plan to get through the top 27 (because that was the end of a tier) this week. haha
Jonathan Taylor, 1.04, RB4
ADP, 1.03, RB2
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP, 1.03, RB2
Grade: Bulletproof
I suspect a lot of you guys think I hate JT given my mentions every time I tweet about him....
But I really don't. I think he's a very good RB prospect. I just think the generational talk was non-sense.
But I really don't. I think he's a very good RB prospect. I just think the generational talk was non-sense.
I has adamant that the patrons need to be trading JT when the hype was hitting its crescendo for a few reasons:
1) JT was a good, not great prospect. This patrons only article has the details https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Nz6UXtFNdGpwQJ9moRycwsVhQ8y-vUqBo90Ol-YWHpY/edit?usp=sharing
1) JT was a good, not great prospect. This patrons only article has the details https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Nz6UXtFNdGpwQJ9moRycwsVhQ8y-vUqBo90Ol-YWHpY/edit?usp=sharing
2) Marlon Mack is an established veteran. Those guys dont just step aside to make room for "good, not great" prospects.
I was concerned that JT was going to see a lot less volume than most were. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1279082931189714945?s=20
I was concerned that JT was going to see a lot less volume than most were. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1279082931189714945?s=20
I think considering JT is still sharing the ball with Hines and Wilkins that if Mack's Achilles tendon didn't explode we'd be wondering why JT isn't getting any touches.
3) I didnt think his situation was as good as everyone else. When looking at situation I am looking at coaching and QB.
Rivers is a fine stop-gap that wont lose games on his own, but life after-Rivers is an unknown.
Rivers is a fine stop-gap that wont lose games on his own, but life after-Rivers is an unknown.
The front office/coaching staff has been making questionable decisions like drafting face planter Parris Cambpell, and bust profile Michael Pittman, and trading up for a good not great RB when equal prospects like Cam Akers and JK Dobbins are still on the board.
This makes me question if the team is headed in the right or wrong direction.
And then I am not entirely sure about their play calling. It seems to be a bit archaic since Andrew Luck abruptly retired.
And then I am not entirely sure about their play calling. It seems to be a bit archaic since Andrew Luck abruptly retired.
4) The offensive line. A lot of people let me know that the offensive line was really good in 2019 per @PFF but per @rotounderworld Marlon Mack enjoyed the 51st best run blocking efficiency.
So I was skeptical of the O-line.
So I was skeptical of the O-line.
I was wrong. JT has the #12 run blocking efficiency per @rotounderworld so far in 2021.
JT just hasnt been very good yet.
He has a 15.2% juke rate and a 0.46 yards created per touch so far. RB42 and RB54 respectively.
JT just hasnt been very good yet.
He has a 15.2% juke rate and a 0.46 yards created per touch so far. RB42 and RB54 respectively.
Outlook: Look in my mentions to see if one of these people that believes JT is elite is in your league and unload him. If you cant find one, just hold.
JT is a normal good prospect that just takes time to get accustomed to the NFL.
JT is a normal good prospect that just takes time to get accustomed to the NFL.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 1.05, RB5
ADP 1.02, RB1
Grade: Maybe
ADP 1.02, RB1
Grade: Maybe
This was CEH going through the #bulletproofprocess https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1323262459650584576?s=20
Back in May I was very concerned that Damien Williams and CEH were going to form a committee.
I tend to fade coach narratives unless they are proven.
Reid having Westbrook, McCoy, and Hunt probably has something to do with the Reid bello cow back narrative.
I tend to fade coach narratives unless they are proven.
Reid having Westbrook, McCoy, and Hunt probably has something to do with the Reid bello cow back narrative.
Then Damien opted out and it seemed like it would be smooth sailing for CEH... Then Lev Bell got cut and found his way to #chiefskingdom 
and we have a full blown committee. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1323017787988570112?s=20
and we have a full blown committee. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1323017787988570112?s=20
When it comes to RB's the good ones earn bell cow touches. The "ok" ones play in committees.
My fear was that because CEH was highly MEH in college that he would be a committee back in the NFL. That is why I had him ranked much lower than consensus.
My fear was that because CEH was highly MEH in college that he would be a committee back in the NFL. That is why I had him ranked much lower than consensus.
Once the season started I figured CEH would be safe this year but that he would always be a candidate for a marquee free agent signing in the future unless he was utterly dominant this year.
My worst fears were confirmed.
My worst fears were confirmed.
My stance on CEH was the same as JT. I trade unproven players with high trade value unless they are Saquon Barkley, which neither guy was.
The play I had recommended all off-season was to trade back from 1.01/1.02 to 1.06 or 1.07 and scoop up whomever was left.
The play I had recommended all off-season was to trade back from 1.01/1.02 to 1.06 or 1.07 and scoop up whomever was left.
Outlook: Pretty much nailed it. A totl fluke that the Jets cut Bell, but it isn't so much about Bell specifically as it was it will be someone soon
Its hard to say what his value is right now, but I have hm as a fringe RB1 to mid RB2 in dynasty. So it depends on what you can get
Its hard to say what his value is right now, but I have hm as a fringe RB1 to mid RB2 in dynasty. So it depends on what you can get
Joe Burrow, 1.06, QB1
ADP - 1.01, QB1
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP - 1.01, QB1
Grade: Bulletproof
This one mostly comes down to positional value.
RB's contribute more to winning leagues than QB's even in superflex and tend to have larger ADP spikes if they hit in year 1.
RB's contribute more to winning leagues than QB's even in superflex and tend to have larger ADP spikes if they hit in year 1.
That being said, in hindsight I should have trusted my projections a little more on this one.
I had best rookie season of all time in Burrow's range this year and so far he is on pace. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1297255804492341248?s=20
I had best rookie season of all time in Burrow's range this year and so far he is on pace. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1297255804492341248?s=20
If I had known that Burrow would be this good this soon I would have likely ranked him at 1.01 even if Cam Akers was playing at a mid range RB2 pace (which is what I had expected).
C'est la vie. I botched this one.
RB thirst was real.
C'est la vie. I botched this one.
RB thirst was real.
Outlook: Buy Joe Burrow.
He is likely going to be a top 3-5 QB in dynasty by next year if he isn't already.
As I work on my dynasty rankings that post on Friday this week on Patreon I am currently debating just how high he should rank.
He is likely going to be a top 3-5 QB in dynasty by next year if he isn't already.
As I work on my dynasty rankings that post on Friday this week on Patreon I am currently debating just how high he should rank.
Tua Tagovailoa - 1.07, QB2
ADP - 1.04, QB2
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP - 1.04, QB2
Grade: Bulletproof
I actually had Tua ranked ahead of Burrow right up until draft day. I was hopeful that Tua would land in LA with the Chargers as they offered the best supporting cast for a QB this year.
Tua had more of a track record of success in college which was very appealing to me. I thought it gave him a higher floor. There was a one-hit wonder element to Joe Burrow.
But Tua landing in Miami was extremely disappointing.
But Tua landing in Miami was extremely disappointing.
I was disappointed with many of the dolphins picks and especially with them not drafting any high caliber weapons for him.
There is a chance they knock it out of the park in next years draft and lock in a future WR1 for him
There is a chance they knock it out of the park in next years draft and lock in a future WR1 for him
But when comparing to Joe Burrow I'd rather have the bird in hand with Burrow's supporting cast especially their selection of Tee Higgins at the top of round 2.
Alas, Tua fell to my QB2 in dynasty rookie drafts. He just had his first start which was rather uninspiring but that could be due to game script.
Needless to say it is far too small of a sample to lean one way or the other at this point on Tua.
Needless to say it is far too small of a sample to lean one way or the other at this point on Tua.
Outlook: Buy.
His prospect profile is really all that we have to go off and it was stellar, so I'd be willing to make the investment in him.
His prospect profile is really all that we have to go off and it was stellar, so I'd be willing to make the investment in him.
Justin Herbert, 1.08, QB3
ADP, 1.10, QB3
Grade: Bust
ADP, 1.10, QB3
Grade: Bust
This is my biggest mistake. Not from a results perspective, but from a process perspective.
I actually was higher on him than consensus per ADP, but I totally botched the grade.
I actually was higher on him than consensus per ADP, but I totally botched the grade.
In the past few months I've been revamping my process for each position. WR's are now done and it didnt change a whole lot for them.
QB's are not done yet but I already know mistakes were made.
QB's are not done yet but I already know mistakes were made.
I was putting too much stock into QBR, YPA, and completion percentage.
I suspect in the revamped process he will be moving up to the maybe tier at least, but more likely in the coin toss tier.
I suspect in the revamped process he will be moving up to the maybe tier at least, but more likely in the coin toss tier.
Nevertheless I had him ranked where I did because the Chargers weapons are soooo good.
Given what we've seen Trubisky, Bortles, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones do with a lot less talent it seemed that Herbert had a solid chance to be a fantasy producer.
Given what we've seen Trubisky, Bortles, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones do with a lot less talent it seemed that Herbert had a solid chance to be a fantasy producer.
Outlook: I want it.
I think Herbert is for real and should be valued as such. He was a much better prospect than I gave him credit for originally and I will have to "eat it" with every magical play he makes.
I think Herbert is for real and should be valued as such. He was a much better prospect than I gave him credit for originally and I will have to "eat it" with every magical play he makes.
Jalen Reagor - 1.09, WR1
ADP - 1.12, WR4
Grade: Bulletproof
ADP - 1.12, WR4
Grade: Bulletproof
Similar to the RB's I do not have my #1 player ranked #1 for dynasty.
I actually think CeeDee Lamb was the best WR in this class, but we'll get into him later.
I actually think CeeDee Lamb was the best WR in this class, but we'll get into him later.
Here is Jalen Reagor in the #bulletproofprocess https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1303196831338307590?s=20
The reason I moved him up to WR1 in the class was because he is:
A) really good
B) has a direct path to an alpha role with a quality QB as soon as the back half of 2020.
A) really good
B) has a direct path to an alpha role with a quality QB as soon as the back half of 2020.
Obviously things haven't really worked out so far. Reagor has been hurt and Wentz has been up and down all year.
I still think there is a chance that Reagor ascends to WR1 status on the Eagles down the stretch and that the alpha chair is waiting for him in 2021.
I still think there is a chance that Reagor ascends to WR1 status on the Eagles down the stretch and that the alpha chair is waiting for him in 2021.
Outlook: Ill take all of the Reagor's.
Reagor hasn't played much so far, but considering all the other good WR prospects are exploding it is a great sign for Reagor's future.
Reagor hasn't played much so far, but considering all the other good WR prospects are exploding it is a great sign for Reagor's future.
