Got emailed by someone who's first commercial game has not sold as well as they hoped. Here are a few of things from my reply (thread):

One of the good reasons to start with a small scope game that's not obvious is that ...

1/?

... it allows you to experience the launching process and then hopefully gain some fans which you can build upon with each subsequent game.

2/?

Fans make marketing easier as they can help spread the word, and provide a "ready made" audience to help buy your game and leave positive reviews on day one. It's very hard for any new indie to launch a game these days without an existing following of some kind ...

3/?

... unless their game is so unique that it wows everyone (which is very rare and certainly cannot be relied upon).

Note that it's been a couple of years since I made the "week1 units sold = prelaunch wishlists x 0.5" formula and things may have got worse since then.

4/?

Simon Carless ( @simoncarless) did another more recent survey and his ratio was x0.2. But it was still possible for games to get way less than that like 0.05x for example.

5/?

Another big factor is "wishlist quality". If fans and people who "organically" find your game wishlist it, those are good quality and will hopefully convert well. But only if your game lives up to the promise, so is a) good, and b) within the expected price range.

6/?

But wishlists obtained from say taking part in one of Steam's demo events, advertising in the "wrong place", or viral marketing events may not have the same quality and thus may not convert as well. (Speculation on my part based on numerous anecdotes, not proven)

7?

Conclusion: Launching your first game is hard and it is likely to have low sales. Raw wishlist numbers are no substitute for actual fans, which you have to build up over time.

8/8