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Tomorrow's interesting not just as Election Day 2020, but for the fact that it may be an inflection point in American electoral history and the end of an era for how regions tend to vote.
American electoral history is driven by major historical events. Every once in a while the Political Etch-a-Sketch is shook up and a new drawing begins. The first giant shake-up was the Civil War, where the Republican Party emerged as Lincoln's Party of the Union.
The Republican Party became the party of the north, while the Democrats established themselves in the southern states after Reconstruction. The Presidency tended to be won by the party that won New York.
This trend continues well into the 20th Century, except for situations like 1912 when the GOP vote is split by Teddy Roosevelt running as a Progressive. This election is notable as the only election between the 1854 and 1964 when Maine votes for the Democratic candidate.
The Civil War Etch-a-Sketch survives the First World War, but is severely shaken by the Great Depression. This is when the Republicans lose their grip on the Union states, and FDR's New Deal coalition sees Democratic wins across the country. Note Maine and Vermont remain red.
The New Deal coalition, despite failing to defeat Eisenhower's personal popularity in 1952 and 1956, endures into the 1960s. That's when the next big Etch-a-Sketch shake happens and the Democrats lose the South.
Nixon's 1972 electoral sweep, as well as the Reagan Revolution and all the Bush father/son victories, are built on the solid Republican south, a complete reversal of the Civil War and New Deal arrangements.
People thought 2008 was the beginning of the end of that map, with Obama breaking through with victories in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, but the maps returned to type in 2012 and 2016.
Since the 1972 election, if the Republican candidate picks off enough northern industrial states, they win. Nixon did it. Reagan did it. Bush the Younger did it. Trump did it. The Solid South delivers 133 to 188 electoral votes, depending on your definition of "The South".
The trick in 2020 will be whether the South stays solid, and the election is decided by those few northern industrial states, or if the South cracks. If the South cracks, it's over for Trump. North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas alone hold 98 electoral votes.
So what's driving that change? It's not The Great Recession, nor is it the Pandemic. My theory is that it's the Great Demographic Shift. America is moving to the South. Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and the Carolinas are growing while the Industrial Northeast is lagging.
Texas, for instance, has been exploding, and has doubled in population since 1980. North Carolina has nearly done the same. People thought that those new Southerners would vote like their new neighbours, but that hasn't been the case.
Further to that, the explosive growth in the South is being driven in fields dominated by college educated professionals, a demographic that trends overwhelmingly Democratic. Atlanta, Dallas, Charlotte, and Phoenix are growing larger and bluer by the day.
The one state that previewed this change is Virginia. From 1952 to 2004 the state voted for the Republican candidate every time except the 1964 LBJ sweep. Rapid population growth, driven by college-educated professionals in the DC area, has since made Virginia a solid blue state.
