With lockdowns being introduced in today and tomorrow and already being in #lockdown, I was interested in how the #COVID19 situation compares in these three countries. Thus, I used my lunch break to produce some figures. #Covid19AT #Covid19DE #Covid19CZ

Thread (1/N)

I use data from @OurWorldInData to align the recent outbreaks based on the number of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people (rolling 7-day average). Following this measure, is 21 days ahead of and is 10 days behind . (2/N)

went into lockdown on October 14, went into lockdown today (November 2) and will go into lockdown tomorrow (November 3).

Realigned to the outbreak, the #lockdown in starts one day earlier than in and locks down 11 days before . (3/N)

These graphs (with linear and log scales) show the new confirmed cases in these countries aligned to the Austrian timeline.

For , one could interpret the curve as a likely scenario for the coming weeks and the curve as what an earlier lockdown would have done. (4/N)

There are of course reasons to believe that the situation in these countries is not perfectly comparable. Different testing strategies, lockdown measures, and behavior of the population, ...

One indication of these differences are the different positive rates. (5/N)

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people was also higher in than at the aligned time of the lockdown. (6/N)

Finally, I compare actual and projected ICU bed usage in and (data for not available on OWD). At the aligned time of the lockdown, the level is lower in than in .

The forecast is from the Austrian @bmsgpk ( https://bit.ly/3oNCrv1  - November 1).

(7/N)

Three remarks on the previous figure. First, data on ICU usage is not up to date for on OWD. I use the data from @neuwirthe instead. Second, the @bmsgpk only publishes the forecast as a figure and not as a table. I tried to match the line as closely as possible.

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Third, as @SimonRosner points out in this article ( https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2080817-Spitalskapazitaet-Im-Grenzbereich.html), it is not completely obvious what constitutes an ICU bed. Another thing to have in mind when making the above comparison. (9/N)

We will see in the next days whether can bend the curve quicker than and what the earlier German lockdown brings.

I'll update these figures in the coming days. Here is the Stata code for anyone interested (suggestions welcome): https://www.dropbox.com/s/3bxmet2mn253any/Austria%20-%20Czech%20-%20Germany.do?dl=0

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