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THREAD: Why Nigel Farage’s new anti-lockdown party probably won’t get many votes, but why that might not matter.
Farage’s big problem is this graph from the latest @YouGov polling showing that it’s the youngest age groups which are most hostile to lockdown. 1/11
Farage’s big problem is this graph from the latest @YouGov polling showing that it’s the youngest age groups which are most hostile to lockdown. 1/11
Whereas this is the age breakdown (from @DeltapollUK ) of support for the Brexit party in July 2019, when it enjoyed a high level of support. @BESResearch data also shows Farage himself was most unpopular with the youngest age groups and most popular with the old. 2/11
Whilst the impression from both mainstream and social media is that lockdown sceptics are middle-aged, right-wing Brexit supporters, most of those opposed are actually young people who don’t like a policy which benefits them the least, and imposes negatively on them the most.3/11
This is the breakdown of lockdown opposition by Remain and Leave vote – Leavers are indeed slightly more likely to oppose lockdown, but there isn’t the huge difference between the two sides that you see over immigration, for example. 4/11
AND YET. Farage's success doesn't come from winning Westminster seats, but by exploiting the threat of drawing away Tory voters in marginal constituencies (and handing the seat to Lab). This forced Cameron to hold the EU ref, and Johnson to negotiate a very hard Brexit deal. 5/11
With Labour level or ahead in the polls, the government is aware that losing even small numbers of votes could cost them dozens of seats. AND what Farage is arguing, chimes with the core beliefs of many Tory MPs anyway. 6/11
This is one of my favourite charts from @UKandEU showing how Tory MPs are far more right-wing than Tory voters; the libertarian argument that the government shouldn’t interfere in people’s lives has a strong appeal to them. 7/11
Meanwhile, the sad fact is that this may not be the last lockdown we go through. Easing restrictions over Xmas, students coming home, people travelling to see families and spending lots of time together indoors is likely to lead to an increase in cases in the New Year. 8/11
Unless there's a dramatic changes in Test & Trace or a vaccine is very rapidly rolled out, a new lockdown could be necessary – but Tory MPs will be strongly resistant *especially* if they perceive an electoral threat from Farage (who will doubtless be all over the media). 9/11
Whilst the majority still support lockdown (73% according to YouGov) it’s nevertheless fallen from the near-universal levels in the summer, a third lockdown would be even less popular. And we’ve already seen how indecisive Johnson has been over Covid. 10/11
The worry is that even with minimal public support, YET AGAIN Farage decisively influences Tory government policy – this time by delaying/avoiding necessary action on Covid in the New Year. 11/11
