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So about tomorrow. Number of people are asking if Trump can win. The answer is “yes”. Of course he can. He’s the incumbent President and GOP candidate. The issue is will he win. A number of people are saying “yes”. For a number of reasons. So let’s run through them:
a The polls are wrong. Like 2016. Maybe. But then this is a fruitless exercise. All we really have to go on this year is polls. And the pollsters experienced 2016. So they've adjusted their models. The reason I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of 2016 is because of 2016.
b) Trump is doing well in early voting. That’s not true. He's doing well in some counties in some key states like Miami-Dade. But taken in its entirety, there is evidence early voting is significantly favouring Biden (i.e. youth turnout). And early voting data is skewed by Covid.
c) Biden is “cannibalising” his vote, and Trump will overtake him tomorrow. Possibly. Covid fears could affect in person Democratic turn-out. But the fact is Biden goes into tomorrow with a GOTV advantage. He has to turn-out a significantly smaller % of his vote than Trump.
d)Trump’s base is motivated. Look at the rallies. Well yes. But the early returns show Biden’s base is motivated as well. And Biden has been holding low key rallies because he wants to emphasise he’s taking Covid seriously, whilst Trump is not.
e)Trump will win because, well, he’s Trump. OK. There’s no rebutting that one. If you believe it you believe it.
Now, here are the reasons I personally think Biden will win:
a)He’s ahead by a margin in the national polls not seen since Obama ’08 and Clinton ’96.
a)He’s ahead by a margin in the national polls not seen since Obama ’08 and Clinton ’96.
b)He’s ahead by solid margins in sufficient battleground polls to win a landslide.
c)He’s significantly ahead of where Clinton was in terms of national poll lead and battleground state poll lead.
c)He’s significantly ahead of where Clinton was in terms of national poll lead and battleground state poll lead.
d)The polls have not “narrowed”. Biden’s lead has been remarkably stable.
e)He’s enjoyed a spending advantage in the closing stages of the campaign of 3:1 over Trump.
f)He enjoys a significant GOTV advantage.
e)He’s enjoyed a spending advantage in the closing stages of the campaign of 3:1 over Trump.
f)He enjoys a significant GOTV advantage.
g)If this race involved anyone but Donald Trump the narrative would not be this was a close or dramatic contest. This would be seen as a contest that was already effectively over.
So that’s it. I think Biden will win, and I think he’ll win by a comfortable margin. Sorry Joe.
So that’s it. I think Biden will win, and I think he’ll win by a comfortable margin. Sorry Joe.
