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Morning all, back from my book sabbatical. Don’t think I missed much! But I do have thoughts on the return of Nigel Farage:
#1: He's been plotting this for months, told friends he was “waiting for an opening” after losing his LBC show. Most assumed it would be over a Brexit deal
#1: He's been plotting this for months, told friends he was “waiting for an opening” after losing his LBC show. Most assumed it would be over a Brexit deal
#2: Farage matters because he’s the most successful campaigner since Tony Blair. Those who laugh off his attempts to become an MP are foolish: we live in his world.
Farage also has a unique grip on the Tory psyche because they see him as “one of us”. As one Boris Johnson wrote:
Farage also has a unique grip on the Tory psyche because they see him as “one of us”. As one Boris Johnson wrote:
#3: Most of the Tory anger over Boris Johnson’s leadership has been contained because the party has remained competitive or ahead in the polls.
But with 23% of Tory voters opposing lockdown 2.0, Farage can split the right vote (again), peel away voters and put Labour ahead.
But with 23% of Tory voters opposing lockdown 2.0, Farage can split the right vote (again), peel away voters and put Labour ahead.
#4: As with the referendum and Brexit, Farage’s new Reform party will primarily amplify the concerns/fears of libertarian Tory backbenchers.
Farage has a reason to be on the news and radio again. The likes of Iain Duncan Smith will see this and use it to demand policy U-turns.
Farage has a reason to be on the news and radio again. The likes of Iain Duncan Smith will see this and use it to demand policy U-turns.
#5: Farage’s Reform party will struggle to get democratic representation. Without European Parliament elections - proportional voting! - his best hope is picking up a few councillors in next May’s local elections as a protest vote. FPTP has been the handbrake on his ambitions.
#6: Farage has advocated major political + constitutional reform since the early days of Ukip. He’s long favoured proportional representation, abolishing the House of Lords etc. Until now, he has struggled to find an audience and now hopes coronavirus has untapped something.
#7: Farage is a master of reinvention. Brexit Day ended his main role in public life, he lost his media platform in June and may be about to lose his most prominent cheerleader Donald Trump (h/t @robertshrimsley). Anti-lockdown advocacy gives him a purpose again.
#8: Don’t underestimate Farage. The Brexit party was a very successful pop-up outfit. It went from nothing in April 2019, to winning the European Elections a month later. His campaigning forced out prime minister Theresa May, ushered in Boris Johnson and delivered Brexit.
#9: But anti-lockdown campaigning and political reform is far more nuanced and very different from Brexit, which had fermented for 15 years before Farage became a national figure. It’s not clear what success looks like for Farage, he’s unlikely to stop this or future lockdowns.
#10: Don’t be surprised to see Farage’s Reform party grab some points in the opinion polls and anti-lockdown sentiment to grow over the winter. Some may be due to Farage, but it may also be down to fatigue that has gradually grown since the first lockdown.
#11: Farage hasn’t been consistent on lockdown - back in March he was attacking the very herd immunity he now seems to be advocating. That’s not the point: he’s a populist after all. His antenna have sensed an opening and he’s going to try and grab it. https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1238379395305410560
#12: And finally, Farage will find lots of media support for his new outfit. The Daily Mail, Sunday Telegraph, Express papers and TalkRadio have been very sceptical or actively advocated against lockdown 2.0. They will amplify Farage’s cause and no doubt hand him a platform.
