Thread by @marshallmanson, Some friends in the UK and Europe have asked for suggestions on [...]

Some friends in the UK and Europe have asked for suggestions on what to watch for in US election returns tomorrow night / Wed. morning. Here is a thread. And it's pretty high-level political geekery.

First: Where to watch. Don't watch the BBC. Their coverage of U.S. elections is awful. Great for everything else. Not this. Find an American network. CNN is good. ABC News or NBC News (not MSNBC) is better. Both should be streaming and available here.

Now, what to watch for, by poll closing times:

7p EST / midnight GMT — Georgia. If Biden wins here, we're looking at a Biden landslide.

Also, the South Carolina Senate race — Biden can't win in SC, but if Lindsey Graham loses his seat, expect a big night for Biden.

730p EST / 1230a GMT — North Carolina. A key battleground. If Biden wins here, he should win the election easily. And local Dems think they have a good lead.

8p EST / 1a GMT — Pennsylvania. The key swing state. Keep an eye on Erie County. It's usually an indicator for the whole state. And don't react too much to early results. Big cities, where Biden needs big margins, tend to take longer to count and report.

Also at 8p EST / 1 GMT — Michigan. Biden should win here by 6-10 points. If he doesn't, it's likely to be a good night for Trump.

9p EST / 2a GMT — Arizona. A key battleground. If Biden wins here, it could be the difference between a weeks-long contested election fight and a clear win right away. Watch Maricopa County (Phoenix). As it goes, so goes Arizona.

10p EST / 3a GMT — Iowa. A key test of polling accuracy. Yesterday's Iowa poll gave Trump a surprise 7 point lead. If correct, whole midwest could be trending to Trump. Iowa also counts its mail-in ballots first, so it will be key indicator of mail votes vs. Election Day votes.

Also 10p EST / 3a GMT — Nevada. If Trump wins here, he's almost certainly winning nationally. Polls show a solid Biden lead. But a big polling error might show up here faster than other places.

The times above are polling closing times. It will take many hours to count. And networks won't call states where the vote is close off of exit polls.

So, I'll be going to sleep a little early and getting up about 330a GMT when results should really be rolling in.

As every, happy to answer any questions if it's useful.

A couple of great resources for those who want to go deeper.

NYT on the key 20 counties to watch: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/battleground-states-trump-biden.html

The Battlegrounds Within Battlegrounds

Here are 20 counties in battleground states that are crucial for a White House victory.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/battleground-states-trump-biden.html

And the NYT with all of the details on when polls close and how long each state's count is expected to take: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html

How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States

We asked officials about their election results processes and what share of votes they expect to be counted by Nov. 4.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html

An even better run-down of time it will take to count and report in each state. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

When To Expect Election Results In Every State

A guide to poll closing times on Election Day 2020, major Senate and House races to watch, how long vote counting will take, and when election results are expected in all 50 states.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

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