A thread on #BiharAssemblyElection2020

Not a Bihar Expert, but trying to put up a summary of Bihar elections after my observation of campaign so far & interaction with some voters + browsing views of Voters thru various social media, mainstream media & other sources.

What has changed from 2010 & 2015 elections which is deciding the outcome of this election –

~Several U-Turns of incumbent Nitish Kumar between 2013 & 2017 have charged up core voters of RJD who felt betrayed post JDU’s realignment with BJP in 2017, want to teach NiKu a lesson

~On the other hand CM NiKu has lost magnanimity & Altruism among a section of Core BJP voters (Upper caste) as well after several flip flops and his love-hate relationship with BJP in the past, this has meant even a section of UCs are also charged up + vocal against NiKu

3/n

..they feel time is ripe to install a BJP CM lead govt after NiKu’s ordinary 3rd term

~In last 3 decades of Bihar politics, mostly MY bloc was vocal, but it was always counter balanced by UC voters who hold sway over forming opinion & narrative in most Hindi Heartland states
4/n

...But this time around, both dominant blocs of MY & UCs are not only vocal but created a narrative against NiKu which is visible in the form of Anti incumbency being discussed in Bihar after 1.5 decade

~Then there is a young aspirational voter in the age group of 18-30..
5/n

...who have either not seen RJD’s rule or don’t have much memories of it, they are also vocal for churning in Bihar politics which has seen only 2 faces (Nitish & Lalu) dominate post mandal era & control the narrative mostly on castelines

6/n

What has not changed in last 3 decades –

~Development vs Caste debate in which caste always prevails over former in Bihar

~Scars of 15 years of RJD rule still fresh among voters of 35+ age group

~Each of the 3 major parties BJP, RJD & JDU holding on to their core votebank

7/n

X Factors –

~Chirag Paswan’s LJP experiment has added a new dimension to this election and completely changed the dynamics which is contesting only non BJP seats and luring that section of BJP voters who are not happy with JDU but cant vote RJD either...

8/n

...To make this experiment work in his favor, Chirag poached several BJP rebels, pitted them against JDU & RJD

~Then there is Upen Kushwaha’s RLSP (in alliance with BSP) who will further dent into traditional Kushwaha voters of JDU, while BSP cuts into Anti BJP Dalit Votes

9/n

~Large section of Bihar voters have been beneficiary of Modi Govt’s central schemes like Infra push, PM Aawas yojna, 100% Rural electrification, Shauchalaya (Toilet) Nirmaan under Swachh Bharat Abhiyan Yojna and several other DBT schemes, further adding value to BJP

10/n

Likely outcome -

~Flat Election on 121 BJP+VIP contested seats with Local caste Arithmetic & base vote of all parties deciding the result. BJP, VIP will sweep the election on the back of BJP’s high core base which is getting topped up by LJP’s traditional 5% Dusadh votes..

11/n

...and lose only those seats where MGB’s MY arithmetic is overwhelming that of BJP

~Real election with changed dynamics is being fought on 122 JDU+HAM contested seats, with LJP running away with a section of Anti Nitish but core BJP votes..

12/n

...leading to serious issues of Vote transferability within Current NDA on atleast 30 seats where LJP has put a strong local candidate (mostly a BJP rebel) who can give both JDU and RJD candidates run for their money.

13/n

~ 90% voters will vote in this election, the way they have been voting in the past on Caste, CM choice, Candidate & other local factors, it’s the 10% Swing voters of (a) BJP who are disenchanted with NiKu and (b) 18-30 age group voter who want change (Mostly a BJP CM)

14/n

~My seat prediction -

BJP –> 84 (+-4)
RJD –> 61 (+-5)
JDU –> 52 (+-7)
LJP –> 14 (+-2)
INC –> 13 (+-3)
VIP –> 7 (+-1)
Left –> 6 (+-2)
HAM –> 2 (+-1)
Others –> 4 (+-2)

@Pradip_K_Varma @DataGuyRedux @Ash_Rokzz23 @Pinkesh80864128 @Abhishek3592 @ajitabh_baruah @amityadavamit