Read on Twitter
1/n) Thread on 2020 US elections & early voting vs election day voting 
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1322942840419291136
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1322942840419291136
2/n) We are at 95.5M early votes in 2020 election with one more day to go. Estimates of the total early vote are up to ~100M. https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1323071802025955331
3/n) For a sake of this analysis I shall take 2 scenarios : 97.5M early votes & 100M early votes.
For the overall total votes (i.e. early votes + election day votes ) it is estimated that the total will be north of 150M (which could go up to 160M as per various forecasts)
For the overall total votes (i.e. early votes + election day votes ) it is estimated that the total will be north of 150M (which could go up to 160M as per various forecasts)
4/n) YouGov poll indicated that 66% of those who voted already (i.e. early voters) gave their vote to Biden vs just 32% to Trump. While for those who haven't voted yet (i.e. mostly election day voters) 69% were going to vote for Trump vs 27% for Biden.
5/n) Based on these assumptions I ran the analysis for the potential Popular vote differential for Biden vs Trump for (97.5M & 100M early votes & 150M, 155M & 160M total votes)
6/n) It seems that Biden could have a popular vote % delta of ~4.4 to 8.9% vs Biden.
7/n) Now we know that US presidential elections are decided on basis of electoral votes and popular vote %. delta. In modern presidential history two times the popular vote winner has lost in the electoral college (Kerry 2000 +0.05% & Hillary 2016 +2.1%)
8/n) For Trump to stand a chance in winning the electoral college he needs to ensure that the electoral college popular vote % delta is not way too much. A very large deficit will mean that there is a "national wave" against Trump and towards Biden.
9/n) Trump will have to ensure that while the popular vote % delta is kept manageable in 4-5% while he has a shot in the electoral college to win 270 votes.
10/n) To overcome the large early voting deficit Trump needs a huge turnout on election day to overcome Biden's leads in the key swing states. He will require it seems closer to ~60M total voters on election day across the nation to have a shot at winning re-election.
