Early vote as a percentage of 2016 turnout:

Just gawking at these states.

Arizona: 86.5%
Florida: 90.8%
Nevada: 91.2%
Georgia: 93.7%
North Carolina: 95%
Montana 98.8%
Texas: 108.3%

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

*corrected from a deleted tweet

For reference, here are total turnout rates in 2016, as a share of eligible voters.

National: 60.2%

Arizona: 56.2%
Florida: 65.7%
Nevada: 57.3%
Georgia: 59.9%
North Carolina: 65.2%
Montana: 64.3%
Texas 51.6% https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections

So some of these states (and Texas, in particular) are just catching up to last year's fairly low benchmark.

In others, it seems plausible we're going to see 70% or higher turnout. In 2008, only 5 managed it.

What does this all mean for the results? I have no idea. But just watching the surge is kind of remarkable.

Also, every election should involve a full month of early voting.

OK, so here's an actual takeaway: If Biden wins 56% - 57% of the early vote in FL, I'll be fairly confident in his chances of winning it. (Keep in mind, I'm an anxious human being who kind of assumes the worst).

Rationale: If Biden gets 56% or more, Florida could hit 80% total turnout (which would be a record for any state), and there still wouldn't be enough votes left for Trump to catch up, even if he won 70% o the ballots actually cast on election day.

Yes, those are a fairly insane set of standards I'm laying out. But, as said, I am insanely anxious.