Alright prediction time! Based off of the latest CCES data put through our VARUN prediction model this is what I think the final EV will look like

It has Biden winning Iowa, Ohio and Georgia by less than 1%, and Georgia by less than .1%. Texas is within 1.5%. And this is the county-level prediction

For the final prediction I added some state-level boosts for states where Dems were running a real campaign vs. 2016 (MI, WI and TX) and to tamp down third party votes best I can. It has Trump winning the ME-02 EV but with less than 50% so maybe RCV would give it to Biden

I'd assume the Senate moves in line with the WH vote so that's a 51-47 D Senate with 2 GA runoffs.

Now of course these predictions won't pan out exactly, but I think it'll be interesting to see how they differ from actuals so we can measure how national changes in demographics (which is what we measure) were lumpy instead of smooth at the local level

It's also a good way to catch Republican voter suppression, seeing where demographically similar areas had divergent results. And a good benchmark to have on election night.

Getting a lot of "wa wa wa, voter suppression." To that I say, shut up loser, we got 48 hours left. Act like a winner. Voter suppression only works if you think you can't circumvent it. You can, so go out and make calls instead of complaining to me. https://www.futurenow.org/givesmart/