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Georgia hasn't gotten much love this year as a possible state legislature battleground, and I'm not sure why. Dems clearly are a long shot to take the House (no chance at the Senate), but it's a viable enough pathway to warrant watching (+ including in pundit ratings). #gapol
Dems would need to flip 16 seats and protect their one vulnerable seat (Minority Leader Bob Trammell) to get there, so again, it's an uphill climb. But there are nearly three dozen seats worth watching if election day breaks heavily in the Dems favor.
I put together a list of races to watch, so you don't have to.
I also included current EV totals, EVs from non-2018 voters, primary ballot splits from June, and 2018/2016 results if applicable.
What's nuts is only a handful were even challenged in 2016.
I also included current EV totals, EVs from non-2018 voters, primary ballot splits from June, and 2018/2016 results if applicable.
What's nuts is only a handful were even challenged in 2016.
Now you might be wondering why some of these, which probably won't be very close, are on the list.
Criteria were either:
1. The opposing party had more ballots in the 2020 primary
2. The incumbent party had fewer than 60% of the primary ballots
Criteria were either:
1. The opposing party had more ballots in the 2020 primary
2. The incumbent party had fewer than 60% of the primary ballots
Really this will come down to Metro Atlanta (2nd map is an Atlanta view). There are a few other districts scattered around the state that could conceivably flip, and others that will be tantalizingly close in the Black Belt but are probably out of reach.
If I had to guess, I'd say Dems fall just short, with a pickup of 10-12 seats. If Black turnout gets up in the central part of the state (i.e. around Macon) or the suburbs/exurbs swing another 8-10% (i.e. D+4 and R-4), then 15-16 could be a coin-flip proposition.
But we're definitely looking at a wipeout of potentially every remaining GOP rep in Fulton (except small slivers with large majorities in other counties, like Todd Jones in HD-25), and a culling of GOP reps in Cobb/Gwinnett/Henry.
Even if the GOP retains control of the Georgia Assembly, it will be with a narrow majority in the House, and redistricting won't be easy. I do not think they can safely gerrymander the GA House for a decade of control. Too much growth in metro Atlanta, loss in the rurals.
It is much easier to gerrymander districts of 700,000 people or 200,000 (GA Senate) than it is 60,000. Especially in a fast growing region like Atlanta.
Either way, a 95-85 split in the House is a very different state of affairs than the huge GOP majorities we've seen this past decade. They can still ram culture war bills through, but budgetary, eduction, transportation, criminal justice, etc. policy debates are very different.
One last note, there are two Public Service Commission seats on the ballot. These elections tracked closely with the Kemp-Abrams race in 2018, so it's conceivable a Biden win could have the downballot effect of giving GA its first statewide Dems elected in nearly 15 years.
So in addition to the national races, it's well worth watching both the GA House and PSC races, and of course...the Gwinnett Transit Referendum.
#gapol
#gapol
Actually one final, final note. The 2020 primary ballots data came from http://georgiavotes.com . I don't think it necessarily predicts the outcome, but it's the most recent relevant data we have, so it's a good framing for "what's within the realm of possibility" on Tuesday.
