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The power of Soka Gakkai voters in Kansai is evident in the results of the Osaka referendum. Numerous factors at play here (short-ish thread): https://twitter.com/osakatokosono/status/1322944828401876992
Commentators point out that Corona is a factor. Gakkai admin shut down regular activities from mid-February 2020. Gakkai vote-gatherers are unable to muster their customary power, even now. Meetings remain highly restricted. Check out Gakkai HQ in today's Seikyō shinbun:
But Corona is only part of the story. Why did Gakkai members not follow their party's reverse course in this referendum? Deep bonds its members forged fighting for their Komeito reps at all levels of government. The area is called 常勝関西 (ever-victorious Kansai) in the Gakkai.
Close attention must be paid to loyalty Kansai members have for Ikeda Daisaku, Soka Gakkai's Honorary President. These bonds were cemented through political action, notably the "Osaka Incident" of 1957. I explore this in detail in my book (shameless plug): https://uhpress.hawaii.edu/title/soka-gakkais-human-revolution-the-rise-of-a-mimetic-nation-in-modern-japan/
Generations of Gakkai vote-gatherers have cultivated their Gakkai practice as indivisible from electioneering on behalf of Komeito. This has entailed gathering votes for allies, including Ishin. But dissolving these ties? This would mark a betrayal of hard-won victories.
Coverage of this in the Asahi: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNBJ54YGNB9PTIL02X.html?iref=pc_extlink
The now decade+ of Ikeda's absence has seen increasingly diverse articulation of ideals by his disciples. This has occasioned disaggregation of Soka Gakkai into multiple constituencies. Osaka loyalists who went against Komeito are informed by the regional history of their group.
The Gakkai's Osaka past matters - to Komeito, and to Ishin. Examined in detail in the book I wrote with @AxelPKlein, Steve Reed, @LindaHasunuma and numerous others.
https://ieas.directfrompublisher.com/catalog/book/k%C5%8Dmeit%C5%8D
https://ieas.directfrompublisher.com/catalog/book/k%C5%8Dmeit%C5%8D
Also, @AxelPKlein and I have a chapter in the Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics (forthcoming) that looks at the political consequences of Soka Gakkai's disaggregation after Ikeda Daisaku last appeared before members on May 13, 2010. A decade of what I call "liminal leadership"
For helpful analyses of how Komeito leverages its role as junior coalition partner for material benefits, see also @amycatalinac's tweets, recent pubs, and presentations. Essential stuff.
