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Ok. We are 50 hours out from the first polls closing. Here's @NextIrishGE take on what to look out for on Tuesday night...… and beyond.
7PM EST (Midnight
) Partial results from IN & KY will be joined by VT, SC, GA & VA.
Key here will be Georgia. It appears to be deadlocked, and if it goes blue it's game over for Trump. Atlanta Metro Area turnout will be key here.
In the Senate, watch GA and SC (both R-inc).
) Partial results from IN & KY will be joined by VT, SC, GA & VA.Key here will be Georgia. It appears to be deadlocked, and if it goes blue it's game over for Trump. Atlanta Metro Area turnout will be key here.
In the Senate, watch GA and SC (both R-inc).
7.30PM EST (12.30AM)
Three states: NC, OH & WV. All Trump states in 2016, if Biden wins either NC or OH, it looks over for Trump. Both will report quickly, so likely calls will be made at some point.
Two Senate races here, but watch NC where R-inc Tillis looks to be behind.
)Three states: NC, OH & WV. All Trump states in 2016, if Biden wins either NC or OH, it looks over for Trump. Both will report quickly, so likely calls will be made at some point.
Two Senate races here, but watch NC where R-inc Tillis looks to be behind.
8PM (1AM)
16 States + DC.
Florida will already have around 80% in at this stage, so a call could be made rapidly. Other swing states closing are PA and NH, but don't expect results from the former for some days.
Watch ME senate.
)16 States + DC.
Florida will already have around 80% in at this stage, so a call could be made rapidly. Other swing states closing are PA and NH, but don't expect results from the former for some days.
Watch ME senate.
8.30PM (1.30AM)
Only Arkansas closing. Both Trump and R-inc Sen. Cotton expected to win easily.
)Only Arkansas closing. Both Trump and R-inc Sen. Cotton expected to win easily.
9PM (2AM)
14 more states close, with close races in AZ, TX, NE-02, WI & MI. Only expect AZ and TX to declare on election night though.
On the senate side, close races in AZ, KS and MI will close.
We also should know if the Dems keep the house by then.
)14 more states close, with close races in AZ, TX, NE-02, WI & MI. Only expect AZ and TX to declare on election night though.
On the senate side, close races in AZ, KS and MI will close.
We also should know if the Dems keep the house by then.
10PM (3AM)
Four more states will close, with IA being the primary focus.
A tight senate race in IA will be joined by MT that hour.
)Four more states will close, with IA being the primary focus.
A tight senate race in IA will be joined by MT that hour.
11PM (4AM)
At this point my weary head will be watching the returns from the West Coast: CA, OR, WA, HI & ID, with only the latter going R. *IF* it is anything like an 8 point lead nationwide and the south swings to Biden, this could be the pivotal moment.
)At this point my weary head will be watching the returns from the West Coast: CA, OR, WA, HI & ID, with only the latter going R. *IF* it is anything like an 8 point lead nationwide and the south swings to Biden, this could be the pivotal moment.
1AM (6AM)
The two-hour wait for polls to close in Alaska will probably mean a trip to the leaba, but this could be a close result, with a tight senate race too. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know how AK goes for some days.
)The two-hour wait for polls to close in Alaska will probably mean a trip to the leaba, but this could be a close result, with a tight senate race too. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know how AK goes for some days.
And then... we wait. Barring a Biden landslide, we will probably be waiting until Thursday or later for final figures from MI, WI & PA, which if the south (TX, AZ, GA, NC & FL) all holds for Trump will mean the results from the Midwest will be crucial.
I hope you can join us!
I hope you can join us!
