There is a significant difficulty for Lockdown Sceptics in conflating that cause with Brexit (because public views on the two topics are much less linked than elite commentariat views are) https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1323015019534163969
- 23% of Leave voters and 18% of Remain voters think the new restrictions go too far. (Between 5/10 and 6/10 of this 1/4 of the public are Leavers; But > 4/10 are Remainers).
- 71% of Leavers agree with the lockdown; 25% think it should be tighter https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1322984536666480641
Age dynamics a big factor preventing Lockdown politics splitting on Brexit lines

Over 65s cautious throughout Covid - now back the new measures by 77% to 20%

Under 24s more sceptical - back new measures by narrower 59% to 32%. (Farage wrong messenger) https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1322984536666480641
Farage taking up the lockdown cause might strengthen this currently v.mild correlation (but it could also cost the lockdown sceptics their chance to reach into the cooped up young; while the Covid caution of older people will be a barrier among some of his 2019 support)
Farage appointing himself as the figurehead of Lockdown Scepticism slashes the 24% market into more of a 12-15% market, and cuts off its appeal to many of the younger group who are most open to this message. A dilemma for @toadmeister and his friends
The "Strongly Oppose" group is 13% - (14% of Leavers and 9% of Remainers). Again, if the Farage association can't find a way to reach across the Brexit lines, it is taking a 13% pool down to about a 7% market to fish in.
Just after GE2019, Nigel Farage's general public approval rating was 27% approval, 63% disapproval (net rating -36)

With the age group least keen on lockdown now (18-24 year olds), Nigel Farage was 15% approve, 71% disapprove (net rating -56); 1/10 having no opinion on him.
YouGov 13th-14th December 2019. (I don't know of a more recent Nigel Farage personal approval survey than this one)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x02rt85qzd/YouGov%20Favourability%20ratings%20191214.pdf
A difficulty for future Nigel Farage parties is a problem arising from Brexit! His best elections - by far - were the European elections.
- National Lists (much easier organisationally than Local/Westmin)
- Low turnout + Differential turnout (higher older, Eurosceptic voters)
Interesting symmetry in that 1/4 people like Nigel Farage (while 2/3 don't), while 1/4 people are opposed to the new lockdown (which > 2/3 support).

However, as half/most of these aren't the same people, Nigel Farage is a mixed blessing for Covid-scepticism.
Interesting symmetry in that 1/4 people like Nigel Farage (while 2/3 don't), while 1/4 people are opposed to the new lockdown (which > 2/3 support).However, as half/most of these aren't the same people, Nigel Farage is a mixed blessing for Covid-scepticism.
Interesting symmetry in that 1/4 people like Nigel Farage (while 2/3 don't), while 1/4 people are opposed to the new lockdown (which > 2/3 support).However, as half/most of these aren't the same people, Nigel Farage is a mixed blessing for Covid-scepticism.
Leavers support the new lockdown measures by 71% to 23%

Lockdown scepticism has about half of the level of support among Leavers as a No Deal Brexit.

This also has 24% public support, overall, but it is a more coherently Farageist group - as it contains half of Leave voters.
The rebranded Brexit Party will combine these two issues
- oppose lockdown [economic cost too high]
- support 'proper' Brexit [WTO terms], where willing to pay a significant short-term economic price [eg, tariffs on trade] https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1323024828132134913
In his video, Farage ceptical about a vaccine being developed & sceptical people would take it.

Several studies find vaccine scepticism in UK is comparatively low vs US or Europe. Eg Ipsos-Mori in Sept: 85% would take, 15% sceptical (7% v.strongly) vs 3/10 in US, rest of Europe
Among the 15% who wouldn't take it in the UK < 1/5 of those (ie, 2.5% overall) are against vaccines in general. Worry about side effects, belief it won't be effective, or not feeling sufficiently at risk are stronger among this minority group
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/three-four-adults-globally-say-they-would-get-vaccine-covid-19
There has been v.little discussion of vaccine scepticism being significantly lower in the UK than in USA, Germany, France, Spain or Italy [repeated in several transnational surveys], so I haven't seen any discussion of what might be driving this.
It would be interesting to see a new polling analysis of who is in the No Lockdown *and* Brexit on WTO terms group

There are 3 relevant indicators of that
- Brexit deal/No Deal/anti-Brexit
- Anti-lockdown, pro-lockdown
- Farage-approvers, Farage-sceptic
You can follow @sundersays.
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