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Did China just unveil a plan to build a fully modern military by 2027? No.
A thread.
A thread.
The issue at hand concerns text in the communique of the Fifth Plenum of the 19th Party Congress, which was released on October 29. 2/
That day, @SCMPNews ran a story, with this claim: “Among the development goals, the communique said, is the construction of a fully modern army by 2027.” 3/ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3107686/policy-meeting-ends-defiant-note-chinese-leadership-insists
Two days later, the English-language edition of the @globaltimesnews ran a similar story, apparently using the “fully modern military” language from the SCMP article. 4/
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1205238.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1205238.shtml
(As an aside, the Chinese edition of the Global Times did not run a similar story, as far as I can tell.) 5/
Citing the Global Times, similar claims now appear in the Indian media. The @timesofindia, for example, reported that the plenum “unveils plan to make PLA on par with US military by 2027.” 6/
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinese-communist-party-unveils-plan-to-make-pla-on-par-with-us-military-by-2027/articleshow/78983236.cms
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinese-communist-party-unveils-plan-to-make-pla-on-par-with-us-military-by-2027/articleshow/78983236.cms
What did the communique say? The key phrase comes in the paragraph on national defense. It begins with calling for “accelerating [加快] national defense and military modernization.” 7/
The communique used “accelerate” fourteen times to describe goals in various policy arenas, not just defense. In party documents, the word is employed to stress areas of importance, along with “strengthen,” “uphold,” “maintain,” and the like. 8/
http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-10/29/c_1126674147.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-10/29/c_1126674147.htm
The paragraph then went on to describe various things to for the PLA to “implement,” “persist in,” “accelerate,” “comprehensively strengthen,” and “raise” as part of accelerating modernization, which would be familiar to those who watch the PLA closely. 9/
Regarding the year 2027, the key phrase is “确保二〇二七年实现建军百年奋斗目标.” One (clunky) translation would be: “Ensure that the goal for which we have been striving for one hundred years of building the army will be achieved in 2027.” 10/
The key word is 建军, which is a compound for 建设军队 or what is often described as "army building" or efforts to develop and improve all aspects of the PLA as an organization. It does not connote "fully modern," though modernization is closely related to army building. 11/
The reference to 2027, of course, is the centennial of the PLA’s founding, as the Red Army in 1927. As my history of China’s military strategy shows, army building and “modernization” have been PLA goals since the PRC's establishment. 12/ https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691152134/active-defense
At the 19th Party Congress in 2017, the CCP did set clear benchmarks for military modernization. By 2035, the work report noted, the PLA should “strive to basically complete national defense and military modernization.” 13/
By 2049, the PLA should “fully complete” its modernization, to become a “world-class” military. 14/
(For a paper on these benchmarks and what it means to be world class, see: https://taylorfravel.com/2020/03/chinas-world-class-military-ambitions-origins-and-implications/)
(For a paper on these benchmarks and what it means to be world class, see: https://taylorfravel.com/2020/03/chinas-world-class-military-ambitions-origins-and-implications/)
The fifth plenum’s communique did not mention any change to the party’s timetable, nor did it use the language of “strive to basically complete” or “fully complete” in the context of PLA modernization. 15/
Nor was any discussion of being fully modern by 2027 part of the PRC Ministry of Defence’s monthly press conference, held on the day the plenum's communique was released. 16/
http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2020-10/29/content_4873535.htm
http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2020-10/29/content_4873535.htm
So, what does this mean? Consistent with many other recent party statements on military affairs, the plenum underscored the need to press ahead with military modernization, indicating that developing military power was as important as economic strength. 17/
As a centennial, 2027 is an important milestone for the PLA. But, so far it does not appear to constitute a new benchmark, much less reflect a plan to be fully modern by then. END/
