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Since I’m back from Cairo, a couple of reflections for anyone interested:
The country is in a paradoxical state of uncertainty and stability, a level of which I’ve not experienced since 2009. It is almost eerily stable and not at all in an “autumn 2010” sense by any means. 1/9
The country is in a paradoxical state of uncertainty and stability, a level of which I’ve not experienced since 2009. It is almost eerily stable and not at all in an “autumn 2010” sense by any means. 1/9
The incredible economic stress on citizens remains, the public is tired. Grateful for new roads/less traffic & new builds - a less chaotic way of life more broadly - but utterly depleted & exhausted from the financial burdens, more than at any point since the devaluation in 2016.
But leadership/government - the State in general terms - is the most stable it’s been since it came to power. This, despite small pockets of unrest that have prolonged & will likely continue. Whether sporadically or more sustained it’s unlikely to cause shakes like sept 2019 did.
“Lockdown” (or rather, covid regulations) has reinstated the barriers and walls that separated society along socioeconomic lines prior to 2011. This is, of course, largely because for several months this year the vast majority of the elite locked themselves away.
Covid is spreading again, mainly among the elite who refuse to exercise even moderate regulations such as social distancing or masks. Parties and weddings bringing news of groups of infections, albeit very mild. Nevertheless, people starting to brace for a new wave (incl govt).
The public is passive when it comes to domestic politics, “who should I vote for? :)” a running joke in many circles as House/Senate elections are held, but not so foreign relations. The GERD in particular, but also Libya, occupies political discussions in all contexts/settings.
But concerns & anger - which is real & widely felt across society - is crystallising on the economic agenda. “He’s fixing [Cairo], no doubt the country is in a better state than it was, but we don’t feel those benefits materially. It’s not reaching us” - Egyptian lawyer (F), 37.
I’d conclude that despite the economic pressure from covid domestically/globally, the pandemic allowed the regime to strengthen, become more stable and less vulnerable to challenges (certainly socially or politically, internal rifts will always remain).
These are merely broad thoughts and not necessarily authoritative (i’m only one person). Nor are they exhaustive, as tweets don’t allow for all the nuance that comes with Egypt generally, let alone at a time like this, with the last decade in the rear-view mirror. 9/9 #Egypt
