Some of my thoughts on #Lockdown2

1) It’s late. Very late. Which means a huge starting point (100,000+) by the time we kick off on Thursday.

This has two major issues.

2) A very large number of deaths are already “baked in” now and we won’t see a change in death rate until early December. 800-2000 deaths a day by the end of Nov REGARDLESS

3) We’ve already waited a whole another week as it is, from announcement on Friday to initiation this Thursday- this week will mean an additional thousands of unnecessary deaths (30% increase).

4) This is where YOU come in. There’s no need to wait until the law change in Thursday- start your lockdown NOW. This only works at all together, but do so in the knowledge you are saving thousands of lives.

5) The R estimate ranges from 1.2-1.6, which means every 6 days cases increase by 20-60% CURRENTLY.

The issue will be moving that dial to below 1.

Think of it like a car on a cliff- it isn’t SPEED that’s important as much as DIRECTION in the first instance.

6) It may be that this lockdown with educational institutions open may be insufficient to get R below 1. Compliance will be another major factor.

If the R remains above 1, cases will GROW exponentially, and all of this will be for naught.

7) And even if we get it BELOW 1, it isn’t enough to sit at 0.99. That means the number of deaths, which will peak at 800-2000 a DAY, will continue at that same peak for MONTHS.

The only way to reduce the deaths is to get the R as low as possible as quick as possible.

8) Again, this is on YOU. Follow the guidelines rigidly and encourage others to do the same. Every little bit really will help. This will MINIMISE economic harm by getting this over with as soon as possible.

9) But don’t expect anything to be done by Dec 2nd. The deaths won’t even start to have turned down by then. But the better we can all do everything we can to get it down ASAP the better for all of us.

10) This weeks delay is utterly mad, and needs to be addressed ASAP, but you have the power right now to help.

On that note then, some more positive tips for getting through this together:

11) spend as much time as you can outside. Exercise- outdoors ventilated spaces are very safe.

As much as possible if In an indoor work environment ventilate as much as possible. Wear your mask. Wash your hands.

12) recognise the impact on mental health and start to try to take positive steps to curb the worst of it.

- have a telephone or Zoom support network
- voice call more, smartphone less
- read more, screens less
- sleep
- again, exercise

13) if you are unwell - SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION. The NHS is never closed, and it actually is far worse for you and for the service if you delay in an emergency.

If you are well, try and stay that way as much as possible. Avoid unnecessary risks, wrap up, avoid alcohol excess.

14) Lastly, there is actually a lot to be hopeful for on the horizon. A vaccine is a real possibility early next year, rapid testing is another possible aid to normality if used properly. Things will get better soon.

15) So, don’t focus on the daily numbers or the deaths, there’s enough of us obsessing over it. Focus on making space, washing hands, and covering your face. Protect your physical and mental health.

We will get through this, but only together. /end

BONUS TV WATCHING SUGGESTIONS:

- The Wire
- The Sopranos
- Succession
- Ozarks
- The Mandalorian

And if you want to help out NHS workers' you can support our charity @theHWF emergency appeal here: https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1323329373324402692?s=20