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Deep Dive on Prez Elections:
So why do I think Trump has very good chances to win this election?
After all, he is behind in the polling average in every single battleground state according to the Real Clear Politics polling average
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
Consensus Map:
1
So why do I think Trump has very good chances to win this election?
After all, he is behind in the polling average in every single battleground state according to the Real Clear Politics polling average
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
Consensus Map:
1
First, most polls are off
They haven't adapted since '16
We're no longer looking at just shy Trump voters
The atmosphere has gotten so toxic that nearly 1/2 of Trump supporters wouldn't answer honestly according to my poll (grain of salt, but still)
2 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1316461941213274116?s=20
They haven't adapted since '16
We're no longer looking at just shy Trump voters
The atmosphere has gotten so toxic that nearly 1/2 of Trump supporters wouldn't answer honestly according to my poll (grain of salt, but still)
2 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1316461941213274116?s=20
Also, polls are based on assumptions about who will be voting in each demographic (political registration, age, ethnicity, etc)
If these assumptions are wrong, then your polls are going to be off
Confirmation bias is an issue on both sides - but most pollsters lean left
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If these assumptions are wrong, then your polls are going to be off
Confirmation bias is an issue on both sides - but most pollsters lean left
3
@Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law have gone to great lengths to point out that a lot of the polls are not getting representative samples
Especially in Florida and Pennsylvania
Here Barnes shows the lack of "random" samples from strong Trump areas
4 https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1319750984109731840?s=20
Especially in Florida and Pennsylvania
Here Barnes shows the lack of "random" samples from strong Trump areas
4 https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1319750984109731840?s=20
Second is enthusiasm in swing states is much higher for Trump
Overall there's a lot of anti-Trump enthusiasm among Democrats nationwide, but that's mostly on the coasts
Lack of enthusiasm for Biden as a candidate may hurt in mid-west where TDS is not as big of a thing
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Overall there's a lot of anti-Trump enthusiasm among Democrats nationwide, but that's mostly on the coasts
Lack of enthusiasm for Biden as a candidate may hurt in mid-west where TDS is not as big of a thing
5
Third, is the Ann Selzer poll which just came out showing Trump ahead by 7% in Iowa
This is considered a gold standard poll and was also surprisingly Trump +7% in 2016 (it caused panic in 2016 - same now)
It indicates how the midwest is going to vote
6 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1322811228717285376?s=20
This is considered a gold standard poll and was also surprisingly Trump +7% in 2016 (it caused panic in 2016 - same now)
It indicates how the midwest is going to vote
6 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1322811228717285376?s=20
Fourth, people tend to vote in their self-interest
Surprisingly 56% of Americans say that they are better of today than they were in 2016 - and that's after a pandemic
Americans trust Trump more on the economy and they know that the economic recovery is a priority for 2021
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Surprisingly 56% of Americans say that they are better of today than they were in 2016 - and that's after a pandemic
Americans trust Trump more on the economy and they know that the economic recovery is a priority for 2021
7
Fifth is the lockdown situation
The media like to focus on Covid deaths, but after 8 months people have Covid-fatigue
Average people are especially turned off by lockdowns
This is my take based on what all the people I know are thinking - even Democrats
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The media like to focus on Covid deaths, but after 8 months people have Covid-fatigue
Average people are especially turned off by lockdowns
This is my take based on what all the people I know are thinking - even Democrats
8
Sixth: Voter registration changes in key swing states favor Republicans
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Seventh: Pennsylvania:
-New voter registration by Republicans much higher than Dems
-Riots in Philadelphia are coming at the wrong time
-Biden gaffe about the energy industry
-Lots of traditional Dems voting Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/podcasts/the-daily/biden-trump-pennsylvania-swing-voters.html
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-New voter registration by Republicans much higher than Dems
-Riots in Philadelphia are coming at the wrong time
-Biden gaffe about the energy industry
-Lots of traditional Dems voting Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/podcasts/the-daily/biden-trump-pennsylvania-swing-voters.html
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Eighth: If you believe the pollsters who try and adjust for the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon (Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Susquehanna, Big Data Polls), then Trump leads in the following states:
-Arizona
-Florida
-Georgia
-North Carolina
-Ohio
-Iowa
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-Arizona
-Florida
-Georgia
-North Carolina
-Ohio
-Iowa
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Other reasons:
-Trump is getting 15-20% of the black male vote
-Early voting is close, yet most Republicans indicate they will vote on election day
-If it comes down to a legal challenge, Trump has more votes on the Supreme Court
-Trump wins 269 tie
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-Trump is getting 15-20% of the black male vote
-Early voting is close, yet most Republicans indicate they will vote on election day
-If it comes down to a legal challenge, Trump has more votes on the Supreme Court
-Trump wins 269 tie
12
-Hunter's Laptop is a real story and changes the perception of Biden for some independents
-MSM/Big Tech censorship backfired
-Kamala was a horrible VP pick
-Independents breaking more for Trump in swing states
-BLM has backfired
-Defund police
-This:
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-MSM/Big Tech censorship backfired
-Kamala was a horrible VP pick
-Independents breaking more for Trump in swing states
-BLM has backfired
-Defund police
-This:
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So basically this is what the map looks like
Biden must win Pennsylvania and Michigan
Can lose either Wisconsin or Minnesota but then can't lose NH, NV, NH or ME/NE district
It's a much tougher path for Biden, but I think he is slightly ahead in all four rust belt states
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Biden must win Pennsylvania and Michigan
Can lose either Wisconsin or Minnesota but then can't lose NH, NV, NH or ME/NE district
It's a much tougher path for Biden, but I think he is slightly ahead in all four rust belt states
14
So why do I think this map is closer to reality than what @NateSilver538 is predicting with his model?
The sources I've based this on were far more accurate in 2016 and 2018
Also, I closely followed the 2016 election and this feels very similar
I think it will be close
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The sources I've based this on were far more accurate in 2016 and 2018
Also, I closely followed the 2016 election and this feels very similar
I think it will be close
15
Ultimately it comes down to who do you believe?
2020 is the year where I lost trust in many institutions:
-Media/
-Government
-Health Care Professionals
-Pollsters
It's not that I fully trusted them before, but I still took their positions into consideration
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2020 is the year where I lost trust in many institutions:
-Media/
-Government
-Health Care Professionals
-Pollsters
It's not that I fully trusted them before, but I still took their positions into consideration
16
The fact that it will be so close, and the mess with the way ballots will be counted means that we won't know for a while who won
Both sides have already challenged the legitimacy of the election:
-Republicans/Trump claim mail-in ballot fraud
-Dems claim voter suppression
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Both sides have already challenged the legitimacy of the election:
-Republicans/Trump claim mail-in ballot fraud
-Dems claim voter suppression
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Ultimately it comes down to who do you trust?
I've lost a lot of trust in many institutions:
-Media/Tech
-Government
-Health Care Authorities
Ultimately I do not trust these mainstream pollsters who expect us to believe them because they are "experts"
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I've lost a lot of trust in many institutions:
-Media/Tech
-Government
-Health Care Authorities
Ultimately I do not trust these mainstream pollsters who expect us to believe them because they are "experts"
18
It's gonna get ugly and no matter who wins, the country will be more polarized than ever
Still, I think Trump is more likely to win - that's who I would be on
That's it, thanks for reading this far
Please RT the first tweet in the thread if you enjoyed
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Still, I think Trump is more likely to win - that's who I would be on
That's it, thanks for reading this far
Please RT the first tweet in the thread if you enjoyed
19
Wow
Turns out people don’t like shutdowns
Who could have guessed
20 https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1322948725929627649
Turns out people don’t like shutdowns
Who could have guessed
20 https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1322948725929627649
