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THREAD: Conflict in Kandahar
Casualty figures are fuzzy, but a few things are clear:
-Taliban ramped up activity in districts near the capital.
-This is proper attempt to seize territory; rare this year.
-Comparable to Helmand offensive, weeks ago.
-US air power quietly active. https://twitter.com/Reporterlyaf/status/1322862877439655938
Casualty figures are fuzzy, but a few things are clear:
-Taliban ramped up activity in districts near the capital.
-This is proper attempt to seize territory; rare this year.
-Comparable to Helmand offensive, weeks ago.
-US air power quietly active. https://twitter.com/Reporterlyaf/status/1322862877439655938
2/ There was a serious set of questions, when Taliban began assaulting outskirts of Helmand's capital: why now? What does this mean for the peace process, and how Taliban are approaching it?
Was Helmand an outlier, or even out of Taliban leaders' control? https://twitter.com/WarProf/status/1316556923248930816?s=20
Was Helmand an outlier, or even out of Taliban leaders' control? https://twitter.com/WarProf/status/1316556923248930816?s=20
3/ As I briefly assessed last week:
Though Helmand uniquely broke the "restriction" Taliban imposed on otherwise aggressive fighting season (no big assaults on cities), it also seemed to fit the trend of their gradual slide back into unrestricted violence. https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1320732707417214977?s=20
Though Helmand uniquely broke the "restriction" Taliban imposed on otherwise aggressive fighting season (no big assaults on cities), it also seemed to fit the trend of their gradual slide back into unrestricted violence. https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1320732707417214977?s=20
4/ Most surprising thing about offensive in Helmand: it had been fairly quiet in 2020 compared to Kandahar, where Taliban violence has raged at record levels this summer.
While Taliban offensive activity in Kandahar is intensifying, and cause for alarm, it also isn't new.
While Taliban offensive activity in Kandahar is intensifying, and cause for alarm, it also isn't new.
5/ At the time, 2018 killing of strongman General Raziq led to worries the province would crumble... yet a year later, Kandahar's centre still held.
*But* Taliban did successfully chip away at the margins of security, setting up future offensives. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/kandahar-from-razeq-to-tadin-2-the-collapse-foretold-that-did-not-happen/
*But* Taliban did successfully chip away at the margins of security, setting up future offensives. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/kandahar-from-razeq-to-tadin-2-the-collapse-foretold-that-did-not-happen/
6/ Taliban seem to seek footholds in the districts closest to Kandahar City.
These are early, initial steps in a now-classic pattern of encirclement of urban centres.
It is unclear if current attempt will succeed; US air power is assisting Afghan troops. https://twitter.com/Reporterlyaf/status/1322472414178103297?s=20
These are early, initial steps in a now-classic pattern of encirclement of urban centres.
It is unclear if current attempt will succeed; US air power is assisting Afghan troops. https://twitter.com/Reporterlyaf/status/1322472414178103297?s=20
7/ But the mere fact that Taliban attempt to advance on & threaten security of Kandahar - second largest Afghan city, cultural capital of southern region - reveals group's approach to the current moment.
Taliban response to this standstill is almost-total reversion to war.
/END
Taliban response to this standstill is almost-total reversion to war.
/END
