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It may be too early for drawing conclusions on what impact recent political developments in Poland may have on its international position. But at least in Polish-Lithuanian relations a possible crisis is becoming more than likely. 1/x
On one hand we are having a large-scale protests in Poland, while the far-right are becoming more and more aggressive towards the protesters. On the other, a new government in Lithuania is up to be confirmed, that may be more outspoken about the rule of law issues in Poland. 2/x
The outgoing Lithuanian government led by S. Skvernelis, as well as president G. Nausėda remained silent about the rule of law in Poland, presumably for the sake of strategic partership and securing crucial common projects in energy, defence and infrastructure. 3/x
Nevertheless, in Lithuania more and more public figures and commentators are becoming aware and concerned about the situation in Poland, e.g. Delfi commentator P. Gritėnas argues here that 'Poland is our friend, but truth is a better friend'. 4/x https://www.delfi.lt/news/ringas/lit/paulius-gritenas-ar-lietuvos-draugyste-su-lenkija-bus-pagrista-tylejimu.d?id=85610459&fbclid=IwAR3TI5uJhd5n3VY2T5GizkIvRF2FE9y51e2ugnAMonFh3qUgHWALpL-gWWc
Gritėnas criticise Lithuanian authorities for turning a blind eye on what is happening in Poland. He asks: 'we have to decide, whether we are friends with the Polish state, the Polish people, or with those currently in power, who blur the boundaries of democracy'. 5/x
This is an example of growing dissent in Lithuanian intellectual elite towards politicians’ silence about the processes in Poland. It may work as a critical mass which can force the new government to address this issue more audibly. 6/x
As I argued before, there are political forces in the new government of Lithuania, that may try to be more outspoken on Poland’s problems with the rule of law. Nevertheless, this issue will be difficult to tackle because of the aforementioned common projects. 7/x
On the other hand, for the past few years Polish government in relations with Lithuania kept trying to facilitate the realisation of the common projects. Other issues, including the usual problems with the situation of Polish minority in Lithuania, were rather left aside. 8/x
This was rather unusual for the conservative Law and Justice party. Before coming to power in 2015, it maintained good relations with the conservative and ultra-catholic Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (EAPL, both parties are members of ECR). 9/x
When in opposition Law and Justice was far more outspoken about the rights of Polish minority in Lithuania and criticised both Civic Platform government for inaction in securing these rights and government of Lithuania for discrimination of Poles. 10/x
M. Dworczyk, now a chief of staff to PM M. Morawiecki used to organise demonstration against 'discrimination of Poles' in Lithuania at the Embassy of Lithuania in Warsaw. The leader of PiS J. Kaczyński was himself less radical advocating for Lithuanian-Polish partnership. 11/x
This attitudes changed however after Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014, and after PiS electoral win in 2015. Kaczyński then tried to return to a policy of friendly relations with Lithuania, as it was during the presidency of his late brother L. Kaczyński. 12/x
Lithuanian political elite also realised that maintaining good relations with Poland is crucial for Lithuania’s security and development of its infrastructure. S. Skvernelis himself managed to establish personal relations with Polish leaders, including Kaczyński. 13/x
Although PiS secured relations with EAPL party, it can be argued that they become less close than before. Mostly because EAPL pro-Putin rhetoric unacceptable for official Warsaw, that in turn engaged in supporting alternative circles within the Polish community. 14/x
Lithuanian-Polish partnership will be most probably continued, despite the political developments in both states. Nevertheless, some processes in Poland may have negative impact on mutual relations. This is closely related to Polish authorities response to current crisis. 15/x
PiS will have to respond not only to women rights protests but also to further radicalisation of far-right that in past few days emerged as self-proclaimed 'defenders of the Church' (or as might be argued, were called by Kaczyński to do this). 16/x
Growing importance of far-right is, however, a political challenge for PiS, that always tried to marginalise or at least to absorb any force that is far on the right in order to get rid of competitors. PiS may try to response to current crisis this way as well. 17/x
It might mean reaching for nationalistic rhetoric and looking for external enemy. Lithuania, where problems of Polish minority remained unsolved, might suddenly become a candidate for this role. Especially when new gov’t of Lithuania is more critical of situation in Poland. 18/18
