This is a widely-held view - that Level 3 was "working" and Ireland overreacted by moving to lockdown.

The available evidence shows definitively that Level 3 is only sufficient to stabilize things and would *not* have got Ireland out of a mess. /1 https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1322866090570141697

It's easy to show this in Dublin and Donegal, and I did for Dublin in another thread.

Just to recap Dublin entered Level 3 on September 18th at a 14-day incidence of 120.9 per 100,000.

What you see is Level 3 did a fantastic job of stabilizing things:

14-day incidence progression for Dublin (+/- 1 week difference):

Sep 19: 123.6
Sep 20: 136.4
Sep 21: 138.0
Sep 22: 136.9
Sep 23: 140.3
Sep 24: 144.5
Sep 25: 146.6 (+20%)

Sep 26: 148.7
Sep 27: 152.9
Sep 28: 160.3
Sep 29: 156.0
Sep 30: 159.3
Oct 1: 162.9
Oct 2: 168.2 (+14%)

Oct 3: 172.8
Oct 4: 162.6
Oct 5: 167.1
Oct 6: 162.3
Oct 7: 171.4
Oct 8: 165.6
Oct 9: 163.5 (-2.5%)

By the 3-week mark, the full Level 3 impact kicks in and the growth has been tremendously slowed.

What happened next?

Oct 10: 173.7
Oct 11: 174.6
Oct 12: 178.4
Oct 13: 180.9
Oct 14: 185.4
Oct 15: 194.1
Oct 16: 198.6 (+21%)

Oct 17: 201.8
Oct 18: 224.6
Oct 19: 232.3
Oct 20: 239.1
Oct 21: 242.6
Oct 22: 253.3
Oct 23: 257.7 (+31%)

Growth surged again as the initial Level 3 impact wore off.

You see a similar situation in Donegal, who entered Level 3 on September 25th.

Of course, Donegal and Dublin are chalk and cheese in many ways, in terms of population, population density etc but you see a very remarkable similarity in Level 3 impact.

14-day incidence per 100,000, Donegal progression:

Sep 25: 159.6
Sep 26: 178.4
Sep 27: 185.3
Sep 28: 191.0
Sep 29: 204.2
Sep 30: 211.1
Oct 1: 218.6 (+39%)

Oct 2: 233.1
Oct 3: 257.6
Oct 4: 265.1
Oct 5: 273.3
Oct 6: 293.4
Oct 7: 312.2
Oct 8: 319.1 (+38%)

Oct 9: 326.0
Oct 10: 324.1
Oct 11: 344.9
Oct 12: 354.9
Oct 13: 354.9
Oct 14: 353.7
Oct 15: 367.5 (+12%)

So, just like Dublin, at the 3-week mark Level 3 succeeded in dramatically slowing the growth rate of infection.

Problem is 17 days on from that full impact of Level 3 in Donegal, their 14-day incidence today is 310.3.

Level 3 was *unsuccessful* in significantly reducing infection levels in Donegal.

It merely stabilized them above 300.0.

Today on November 1st, both Dublin and Donegal are essentially *double* the 14-day incidence they were when Level 3 was imposed.

14-day cases per 100,000:

Dublin:

Level 3 imposed: 120.9
November 1: 237.7

Donegal:

Level 3 imposed: 159.6
November 1: 310.3

The domestic evidence is as follows:

Level 3 is the equivalent of putting the handbrake on a car rolling down a small hill. It might stop the car or reduce momentum, sure.

But what you really want is to jump in, start the car and get off the hill, and it does not achieve that.

When you look at that first graph, you see infection levels soaring in Europe and Ireland going the other way.

All of that is true.

But if you ignore Europe and look closely where Ireland are today - we are still at one of our highest infection levels of the year.

We are headed in right direction thanks to a double impact of Level 3 and Level 5.

Population-level restrictions and Personal-risk behaviours overlap but most people don't wait for the Government to tell them how to be a responsible adult.

They lower their families risk, first.

So while we're 11 days into Level 5, the effective reality is more like 13/14 days.

A lot of people paid attention to surging hospitals and ICU in Northern Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, France.

They didn't need the Government to tell them to make fewer unnecessary journeys.

The full impact of Level 3 and early impact of Level 5, combined has produced:

-a declining positivity rate
-a declining 7-day and 14-day incidence
-a slowing of hospital admissions.

The full impact of Level 5 will be seen late next week.

So far, so good.

Successful measures always look like over-reacting.

There is no correct answer for whether or when to act, it is a judgement call.

The trajectory in Ireland suggests the experts got this right but moreover, Irish society exercised their good judgement and got it right, too.

This can all change lightning fast.

Czech Republic went from lauded for their response to erecting field hospitals.

We're nowhere near out of the woods but we can see the exit and need to keep walking towards it.

-Masks
-2 meters
-Cough into elbow
-Ventilate room
-Wash hands