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This tier 4 and 3/4 no-lockdown is unlikely to last just 4 weeks.
Why? It's not a lockdown. Therefore,
A. it will take longer to drive down new infections.
B. infections still driven by young age groups, who are exempted (schools and unis). The virus will continue to move
Why? It's not a lockdown. Therefore,
A. it will take longer to drive down new infections.
B. infections still driven by young age groups, who are exempted (schools and unis). The virus will continue to move
between younger and older age groups (teachers, support staff and, in the case of unis, community-based facilities which remain open and are frequented by students and staff)
C. at Xmas, students (some with virus) will travel across UK spreading the virus on way , then at home
C. at Xmas, students (some with virus) will travel across UK spreading the virus on way , then at home
D. the shorter the 'lockdown' prior to return, the higher those numbers will be
E. unlikely people will comply with test/trace/isolate over Xmas even if the system were in place
F. new infections picked up at Xmas will be spread around more widely at New Year celebrations.
E. unlikely people will comply with test/trace/isolate over Xmas even if the system were in place
F. new infections picked up at Xmas will be spread around more widely at New Year celebrations.
G. a week after New Year, students (school and uni), teachers and support staff move back into schools and unis, taking new infections with them
H. any gains made before Xmas will soon disappear.
I. only way to avoid another lockdown will be fully functional TTI - IF - BIG IF
H. any gains made before Xmas will soon disappear.
I. only way to avoid another lockdown will be fully functional TTI - IF - BIG IF
new cases are low enough at that stage for even a good system to cope.
Conclusion: the shorter the current no-lockdown lockdown, the more likely it is this is simply buying time for a Xmas and NY blowout - at huge economic and personal cost.
Conclusion: the shorter the current no-lockdown lockdown, the more likely it is this is simply buying time for a Xmas and NY blowout - at huge economic and personal cost.
We may then be heading into post-Brexit chaos (and possibly extended tier 3 across large part of UK) with businesses wholly unprepared (due to lockdown) and the population already reeling from economic harm.
The worry is, this is - once again - too little too late.
The worry is, this is - once again - too little too late.
