As lockdown II looms

A glimpse of what happened a century ago with the 'Spanish' flu of 1918-1919.

There were three waves (not two) and the mortality rate hit 29 per 1,000 people in November 1918 in parts of the country.

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Total deaths from the influenza epidemic (1918-19) were in excess of 200,000.

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Although deaths from the flu had been recorded in May, the significant change was noted at the end of June 1918.

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Table III shows the weekly mortality by age groups, with the very young and younger adults most susceptible.

While the other table show just how rapidly the mortality rate can rise, from 3 deaths on 16th June to 195 on the 30th.

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During the first wave it was the North that was hit the hardest, with signs of the epidemic moving South into the Midlands.

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The first wave was over by the end of July, but there were signs in late September that a second wave was under way with increased mortality in some areas like Liverpool.

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By mid October the second wave was well underway, but this time the highest mortality was noted in the South (although the entire country was affected).

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By November 2nd, the mortality rate in the South hit 28.6 per 1,000.

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November 9th saw the culmination of the epidemic, when the national mortality rate hit 23.6, but then started to decline (especially in the South).

However, the highest mortality rate anywhere wasn't recorded until 30th November in Ogmore and Garw with 106.1.

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Levels continued to fall until January (nationally down to 0.8), when the first signs of the third wave were noted.

The third (smaller and final) wave hit most towns and boroughs in the last week of February and first weeks of March.

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The towns/cities that were hardest hit were, in order:

Barnsley, West Bromwich, South Shields, Sunderland, Wolverhampton, Burton on Trent, Leicester, Nottingham, Rotherham & Warrington.

With Liverpool having marked lower mortality than most other Northern areas.

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Analysis for London.

'suggested that influenza mortality might be found more closely correlated with wealth than with health'.

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Influenza, 1918-19 Weekly Mortality England & Wales

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This is from the Report on the Mortality from Influenza for England & Wales During the Epidemic of 1918-19

A Supplement to the 81st Annual Report of the Registrar General.

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