Obviously I check the 538 forecast obsessively but I'm haunted by the feeling that it's all a waste of time, an elaborate conjuring trick. It can never be wrong, which makes me wonder if it's worth anything at all.
Trump is currently at 10% to win. So Biden wins on Tuesday, the model is right. But the model is also right if Trump wins. The one in ten shot happened! So really, what's the point?
The point of scientific models is that they are falsifiable. You can't falsify 538. So I'm not sure what it tells us - what knowledge it's generating.
Here's a far more sophisticated critique https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1322765502431768576
You can follow @mrianleslie.
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