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Sixteen years ago this month, I got my start in punditry by starting a blog, "The HorseRaceBlog," analyzing polls, early voting trends, and candidate visits to predict the final election result.
It took off like a missile, but I have to say that in retrospect it was mostly crap. Well intentioned crap, but crap nonetheless.
I am so glad I do not write about campaigns and elections anymore. It is a sucker's game all the way.
This is especially the case for anybody with even a slight Republican bias. Election prognostication is like the Price is Right. Get as close to the GOP margin *without going a penny over.*
I bottomed out in 2012 when I committed what turned out to be the most unpardonable of sins, using the national polls to predict a Romney victory.
In the intervening 8 years I've since gotten my PhD and focused on the American founding and the nature of republicanism.
In the intervening 8 years I've since gotten my PhD and focused on the American founding and the nature of republicanism.
And I have to say that as mostly a spectator to 2020, I'm SO GLAD that my ass is not on the line with a prediction.
Like I said, it's a fool's errand all the way.
Like I said, it's a fool's errand all the way.
It turns out that I am much better suited to understanding what has happened then predicting what will happen next.
In retrospect my mistake was pricing the durability of Obama's net negative job approval rating. It was underwater until the DNC, when it rose durably above 0. https://twitter.com/Brianhipp/status/1322766614069190657?s=20
I had hinged my springtime bearinshness wrt his anemic job approval rating, but starting in September I made the mistake of looking at the horse race polling.
In the aftermath I realized that I was too susceptible to magical thinking and confirmation bias to be good at predicting the future. Looking at the past is much less problematic in those respects.
I had to learn this the hard way. Tom Jensen of PPP called me a "moron" in the New Yorker. Three months later Nate Cohn conclusively concluded that PPP's numbers were ... problematic.
And of course Jon "Why liberals should support a Trump nomination" Chait called me "quasi-scientific" for doubting Obama's inevitability.
I say all of this not to bellyache. It's worked out well as it has, and I definitely screwd up at times. I just wanted to share a bit of my personal journey over what has been a 16 year (egads ... 16!) career. And also WHY I AM SO GLAD MY OWN ASS IS NOT ON THE LINE on Tuesday.
I have enormous respect for Nate Silver and Nate Cohn. Personally, I have been aware for more than a decade that my ideological disposition was an impediment to my professional development. https://twitter.com/GeorgialinaCAex/status/1322770914572947456
Both of them put themselves out there cycle after cycle. I respect that. And I read them both when they got started and today, and I can see that both of them have really gotten better. Like, a lot better. We all started at roughly the same place but they just kept going & going.
I doubt we'd ever vote the same way, but damn I gotta respect that.
Sean Trende is another one, too. We started out at roughly the same place, but that dude went on to get a masters in applied mathematics or some crazy shit. How can you not admire that?
