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Following is a quick thread list of the 20 most likely to flip #MNLeg districts between the two chambers. All 201 seats are up this cycle, so these are certainly not the only competitive seats, but these are the ones to look for first on Tuesday night. These are loosely in order.
1. #SD44
This was already a DFL target when the incumbent Republican retired. Of all of the 20, this is the only one that is least likely to even be particularly close.
This was already a DFL target when the incumbent Republican retired. Of all of the 20, this is the only one that is least likely to even be particularly close.
2. #SD56
Incumbent Dan Hall is a pretty conservative member in a 2016 Clinton district who's district has shifted pretty quickly underneath him. If the DFL is going to flip the chamber, this is probably going to be their 2nd seat netted to do so.
Incumbent Dan Hall is a pretty conservative member in a 2016 Clinton district who's district has shifted pretty quickly underneath him. If the DFL is going to flip the chamber, this is probably going to be their 2nd seat netted to do so.
3. #SD58
Incumbent Matt Little is pretty clearly the GOP's top target this cycle. Since it was drawn, only two DFL'ers have carried the district: him and Klobuchar. Lakeville may be a bright spot for the DFL this cycle which makes this certainly not a for sure pickup.
Incumbent Matt Little is pretty clearly the GOP's top target this cycle. Since it was drawn, only two DFL'ers have carried the district: him and Klobuchar. Lakeville may be a bright spot for the DFL this cycle which makes this certainly not a for sure pickup.
4. #SD26
This Rochester area seat features some rough terrain for the GOP. Carla Nelson has held on for a while, but this yeah may be the one where the leftward movement of Rochester proves to be just too much for her.
This Rochester area seat features some rough terrain for the GOP. Carla Nelson has held on for a while, but this yeah may be the one where the leftward movement of Rochester proves to be just too much for her.
5. #HD05A
This was the closest 2018 race. It was a rematch from 2016 and the DFL'er Persell flipped the seat back by just 11 votes out of 16,904 cast.
This was the closest 2018 race. It was a rematch from 2016 and the DFL'er Persell flipped the seat back by just 11 votes out of 16,904 cast.
6. #SD34
Warren Limmer has been in the state legislature since the late 80's. In that time, the Maple Grove area has gone from a solid GOP base of support to a purple area that is on the verge of tipping into reliably DFL territory.
Warren Limmer has been in the state legislature since the late 80's. In that time, the Maple Grove area has gone from a solid GOP base of support to a purple area that is on the verge of tipping into reliably DFL territory.
7. #HD47B
This is one of the seats in the metro that narrowly eluded the DFL in the 2018 wave. This Carver County seat is the kind of affluent college educated white suburb where the DFL has potentially some further upside.
This is one of the seats in the metro that narrowly eluded the DFL in the 2018 wave. This Carver County seat is the kind of affluent college educated white suburb where the DFL has potentially some further upside.
8. #SD38
Chamberlain is a pretty conservative incumbent in this suburban seat that (like 34) used to be pretty solidly Republican. Plenty of outside spending coming into this race this cycle as both parties seem to agree that it is up for grabs.
Chamberlain is a pretty conservative incumbent in this suburban seat that (like 34) used to be pretty solidly Republican. Plenty of outside spending coming into this race this cycle as both parties seem to agree that it is up for grabs.
9. #HD54B
Another one of the House seats that eluded the DFL in 2018. A good chunk of this district is in Hastings which swung from Obama +2 to Trump +9 in 2016. Walz did win that city by 2 in 2018, though that was while winning statewide by low double digits.
Another one of the House seats that eluded the DFL in 2018. A good chunk of this district is in Hastings which swung from Obama +2 to Trump +9 in 2016. Walz did win that city by 2 in 2018, though that was while winning statewide by low double digits.
10. #HD37B
The third suburban seat that eluded the DFL in 2018 where they had a decent chance to make a play. The race is a rematch from 2018. Of note, the incumbent's mother is also on the ballot as the incumbent County Commissioner (though her race is competitive).
The third suburban seat that eluded the DFL in 2018 where they had a decent chance to make a play. The race is a rematch from 2018. Of note, the incumbent's mother is also on the ballot as the incumbent County Commissioner (though her race is competitive).
11. #SD14
St Cloud is one of the areas where Biden could revert things back towards Obama levels. The City has gotten more diverse and more college educated. If Biden is making gains among Catholics vs 2016: expect to see it materialize at the top of the ticket here.
St Cloud is one of the areas where Biden could revert things back towards Obama levels. The City has gotten more diverse and more college educated. If Biden is making gains among Catholics vs 2016: expect to see it materialize at the top of the ticket here.
12. #HD14A
An offshoot of number 11 as it is the St Cloud area district that the DFL failed to flip in 2018. The 2018 DFL nominee here is running for the SD this cycle.
An offshoot of number 11 as it is the St Cloud area district that the DFL failed to flip in 2018. The 2018 DFL nominee here is running for the SD this cycle.
13. #SD05
This district in northern MN is going to be a tough one for the DFL, but they have a pretty solid candidate in the sitting Bemidji Mayor. Bemidji and Grand Rapids are going to be places the DFL will need to net quite a few votes out of. Trump carried both in 2016.
This district in northern MN is going to be a tough one for the DFL, but they have a pretty solid candidate in the sitting Bemidji Mayor. Bemidji and Grand Rapids are going to be places the DFL will need to net quite a few votes out of. Trump carried both in 2016.
14. #SD27
This district is another rematch from 2016. They GOP sees an opportunity here as even Walz only carried it by low single digits in 2018. If the GOP is having a good night, this is where you would be seeing it.
This district is another rematch from 2016. They GOP sees an opportunity here as even Walz only carried it by low single digits in 2018. If the GOP is having a good night, this is where you would be seeing it.
15. #HD56A
This is an open seat after the 1-term DFL member who flipped the seat in 2018 decided to retire. The GOP candidate here used to represent the district, though she lost it in her unsuccessful 2018 statewide race.
This is an open seat after the 1-term DFL member who flipped the seat in 2018 decided to retire. The GOP candidate here used to represent the district, though she lost it in her unsuccessful 2018 statewide race.
16. #SD39
This is another tough one for the DFL, but if they are having a really good night & really expanding the map, you would probably see it here. Plenty of outside cash being spent on this one. Housley did narrowly carry this district while running unsuccessfully statewide
This is another tough one for the DFL, but if they are having a really good night & really expanding the map, you would probably see it here. Plenty of outside cash being spent on this one. Housley did narrowly carry this district while running unsuccessfully statewide
17. #SD54
This district saw a special election a few years ago that the DFL was able to hold on to. It's not a solid DFL seat any longer, but this is a place the *should* be fine in if they are having a decent night. Walz's 2018 performance here should encourage the DFL.
This district saw a special election a few years ago that the DFL was able to hold on to. It's not a solid DFL seat any longer, but this is a place the *should* be fine in if they are having a decent night. Walz's 2018 performance here should encourage the DFL.
18. #SD25
This is the other GOP-held Rochester area seat. A lot of outside spending here and the DFL-aligned spending has significantly outpaced GOP spending (even more so than in neighboring 26). If the DFL is having a really good night, this could be interesting.
This is the other GOP-held Rochester area seat. A lot of outside spending here and the DFL-aligned spending has significantly outpaced GOP spending (even more so than in neighboring 26). If the DFL is having a really good night, this could be interesting.
19. #HD39B
One of the more narrow DFL flips in 2018. There has been a decent amount of outside spending as both sides appear to view this district as competitive. Voted for Trump in a similarly narrow fashion in 2016.
One of the more narrow DFL flips in 2018. There has been a decent amount of outside spending as both sides appear to view this district as competitive. Voted for Trump in a similarly narrow fashion in 2016.
20. #HD26B
This is where I decided to throw my "dark horse" pick. The DFL has a candidate here with some name recognition and if Biden is doing well statewide, the DFL nominee here may not need to outrun Biden by all that much.
This is where I decided to throw my "dark horse" pick. The DFL has a candidate here with some name recognition and if Biden is doing well statewide, the DFL nominee here may not need to outrun Biden by all that much.
You could add a a couple more honorable mentions: #HD38B, #HD58A. Again, this is by no means an exhaustive list. You could add at least another dozen seats that *could* potentially flip, but we are starting to get into a bit of a stretch area.
What this adds up to including those 6 honorable mentions after the first 20: 10 DFL seats and 16 GOP seats. The DFL needs to net 2 in the Senate to flip it, and the GOP needs to net 9 to flip the house (8 to tie).
