I made a map of what I think the power blocs will look like at the start of the new Cold War. There are probably some inaccuracies but it should give a good general idea of how the battle lines are shaping up. This visualization will help me point out the flashpoints.
A THREAD:
I will begin with the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Trans-Caucasian region is a geostrategically critical region in this game of geopolitical chess. The most obvious strategic value of this region is the Azeri oil and the potential pipelines to Europe.
Azerbaijan is a Turkic country and it is aligned with Turkish ambitions in the region. An Azeri victory will allow for the construction of pipelines to Europe that bypass Russia, which will fulfill a strategic goal of the EU: Lessening its reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
The other strategic goal in this conflict, as outlined by the RAND Corporation, is to put pressure on Russia and eventually force Armenia to allow NATO bases in its territory. This would fulfill 2 goals: completing the encirclement of Russia and Iran by NATO.
If NATO is successful in the Caucasus, this will give them the opportunity to finally attack Iran directly. Iran will be cut off from Russia and there would be American bases completely surrounding them. Overthrowing the Iranian government is a CRITICAL part of NATO's strategy.
Here's the full map again, take notice of Iran's geographic position. It is at the center of Eurasia and in a prime position in relation to the oil trade. Iran is capable of destroying the oil trade overnight, which would cripple American power. Its position is also important...
...for the Belt and Road Initiative (The New Silk Road); if NATO was able to topple the Islamic Republic, it would throw a massive wrench in the BRI, preventing China from circumventing a naval blockade by the west. China is vulnerable to blockades and the West does not want...
...to lose that advantage. An Azeri victory in Artsakh and the toppling of Iran would also put Russia in checkmate. This leads to the next disputed country: Ukraine. If NATO was able to base itself in Ukraine and the Caucasus, Russia would be encircled. "Containment" never ended.
Russia is vast, but its populated core is a part of the European Plain and completely flat. For most of its history, Russian national security required it to anchor itself against natural barriers (The Carpathian Mountains and the Caucasus) to properly utilize strategic depth.
If NATO was able to base itself in Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, it would bypass Russia's ability to defend itself. The distance between Kharkiv, Ukraine, and Moscow is ~450 miles; which can be traversed by a modern army rapidly. Russia would be defenseless.
Now we move onto the geopolitics of China and how NATO seeks to gain an upper hand against it. I will start with what is probably one of the most geostrategically important countries on Earth: Afghanistan. This country is notoriously difficult for empires to conquer.
Afghanistan is placed right at the center of the China-Iran-Russia axis and is the perfect staging point for strategic action against all 3 of them. It is especially critical for China, as Afghanistan borders the gateway to mainland China: Xinjiang Province.
Xinjiang contains multiple mountain passes necessary for the BRI, they are also good invasion routes. This is the core reason for the Western propaganda offensive focused on this region. The US has been cultivating extremist Islam to further its interests for decades now, and...
...the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" is the latest Western proxy of this nature. Successfully separating Xinjiang from China and allowing for the creation of a Salafist Islamic state would be a crippling blow to China and allow the US to operate in the region.
The other target of Western propaganda is Tibet. This region contains formidable natural defenses in the form of the Himalaya mountains; Tibetan separatism would allow India to extend its influence there and bypass that mountainous wall. Xinjiang and Tibet are critical to...
..containing/subjugating China. This is why India has joined the Western alliance, as they would benefit greatly from the dismemberment of China. The Hindutva nationalism of Modi is the ideological justification for aggression towards China. India is just a Western attack dog.
The other side of Western aggression towards China is off of its coast. The seapower of the American Empire is anchored by its influence over Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The South China Sea is the big flashpoint in this region. The vast majority of Chinese trade and...
...oil imports go through this body of water, with a massive chokepoint in the Strait of Malacca. If the US and China were to go to war, the first thing the US would do is blockade the SCS and Malacca strait, crippling the Chinese economy. China has been working to limit...
...this threat with the BRI and investments in Pakistan, which would allow it to bypass these chokepoints. This loops back to US meddling in Xinjiang and Tibet, China can't circumvent this chokepoint if those provinces were destabilizing/independent.
Everything I've said so far should demonstrate the fact that the US is still basing its geopolitics on the strategy of Containment, which was used to isolate and destroy the USSR. The US is far less capable of successfully implementing it nowadays, but it's still a threat.
Undermining US aggression in these places can be done in 2 ways: successfully implementing the BRI to circumvent US seapower, and turning Central/South America against the US. A secondary possibility is splitting the Atlantic alliance (NATO), which would severely weaken the US.
The US will look to consolidate its position in the Americas and maintaining the Monroe Doctrine. The ongoing events in Bolivia, Chile, and Venezuela have forced the US to focus on its "backyard". The standard approach of couping South American governments won't work anymore.
The best outcome for the Eurasian bloc (China-Russia-Iran) is for the US to attempt a land invasion of Venezuela and occupy it, as this would be an embarrassing and expensive quagmire for the Empire. I expect the US to make some moves to its south within a year.
It won't be long before the first proxy wars of the new Cold War begin, and they will take place in Latin America. The US must not be allowed to successfully consolidate its control over the Americas. The Eurasian Bloc will also likely make some moves to protect itself...
...while the US is distracted by internal chaos and costly interventions south of its border. 2020 is just the beginning, chaos and conflict will define this decade. The conditions are perfect for communist agitation, we must be prepared.
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