1/12 The main conclusions of my #PhD on #Antarctic #IceShelf #melt over #LarsenC, a thread:

#SciComm #PhDchat #ClimateScience #ClimateChange
4/ #ClimateModels don't represent #Antarctic cloud *that* well, but improving the representation of cloud vertical profile gives better simulated surface energy balance (and hence melt)
5/ Liquid-bearing mixed phase #cloud can initiate summertime melt by raising #temperatures enough to start #melt. More SW reaches the surface as the cloud glaciates + dissipates, and melt continues.
6/ 90% of #melt occurs in summer over #LarsenC, and SW drives the majority of this. However, #foehn events also drive summertime melt, mainly due to the sensible heat they deliver.
7/ 4% & 5% melting occurs in MAM & SON, when #foehn are much more important. Foehn are most common in SON and occur 14-19% of time depending on distance from #mountains
8/ Clouds increase the LW flux and produce an energy surplus, but temperatures during cloudy periods are usually too low for melt to occur. As temps rise alongside future #ClimateChange, #cloud-mediated #melt is likely to become more important.
9/ Large-scale #circulation promotes or suppresses #melt by establishing conditions for SW, #cloud or #foehn-mediated #melting to occur, or for other patterns like barrier winds to reduce temps (and therefore melt).
10/ Positive SAM is the most important circulation pattern for promoting melt, but #ElNiño also plays a role. #Barrier winds, negative SAM and #LaNiña suppress melt.
11/ SAM+ and #foehn occurrence are positively correlated (esp in DJF) so the trend towards a more positive SAM suggests the role of #foehn + SAM-driven #melt will increase in future.
12/ Future outlook for #LarsenC:

- more #foehn-driven #melt (esp DJF + SON)
- more #cloud-initiated melt, extending the melt season into SON/MAM
- 'Greenlandification' of #LarsenC w/ low-level liquid cloud-induced melt becoming more frequent in DJF

#ClimateChange
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