1/ Despite various bouts of bubonic plague ravaging The Pale (the area around Dublin) and various other towns under the control on the English crown throughout the 1300s - some settlements had mortality rates of 85% - there are few mentions of plague in the Annals of Ulster. Why?

2/ There were relatively few outbreaks of plague outside these large settlements to record, because there was almost no transit between them and the lands under the control of the native Irish. The efficient cause of virus transmission is the same today as it was then. Travel.

3/ Aviation brought Covid to Britain - the first recorded cases were amongst a party of visitors from China - and contributed to its rapid transmission, as the Government failed to ground flights from outbreak zones. https://twitter.com/jonburkeUK/status/1239632248749600768

4/ On the other side of the world, @jacindaardern evidently took some lessons from history... https://twitter.com/jonburkeUK/status/1269988030691127304

5/ That's why, in part, the growth in U.K Covid cases looks like this...

6/ ...and New Zealand Covid cases looks like this...

7/ So, if travel is strongly correlated with disease transmission, you'd think the U.K's approach to virus control might involve lockdown controls at and travels restrictions to and from areas with high Covid rates to areas with lower rates of Covid? Instead...

8/ ...we've implemented virtually no meaningful restrictions on travel, whilst simultaneously placing significant restrictions on activities that will have profound and lasting impacts on both the economy and the life chances of millions of children.

9/ In fact, not only have we placed virtually no meaningful restrictions on travel - post-holiday 'quarantine' is a nonsense - the Prime Minister has actively encouraged people to get in their cars. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54346001

10/ Yes - I know this seems about a hundred years ago now, and buried under layers of scandal and incompetence - but @BorisJohnson actually went on national television in May to encourage people to behave in ways that are *known* to spread viruses... https://twitter.com/jonburkeUK/status/1259595456390332423

11/ So, why am I rambling on about all this? Because, without significant restrictions on travel from areas with high numbers of Covid cases (which does not in any way appear to be forthcoming) we're going to squander #Lockdown2, whilst inflicting major economic and social costs.