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See the ISP has put out a glitzier 'remake' of the original 'supermajority' video, with 'Alliance Party' renamed ISP: presumably they don't want you mixing up the erstwhile Alliance for Independence with the ISP. However, the exact same criticisms apply: the plot still has holes. https://twitter.com/ListVoteSense/status/1288959891068067840
2016 NE example used with implication this will necessarily be repeated in 2021. Naturally, of course, video fails to make that point that the SNP lost list seats in 2016 because voters DIDN'T follow #BothVotesSNP as they did in 2011. If they had, SNP would have won a majority.
Modelling shows that #BothVotesSNP is the most effective way to win list seats: it also shows that over 100,000 votes could be cast for a fringe party (or 200,000 for two) nationally, and not only NOT win any seats, but also hand potential SNP seats to the unionists.
Now we're into outright falsehoods. D'Hondt does not stop parties doing well in the list if they do well in the constituencies: only a party's list vote does that. Even if the SNP won every constituency, it can still win more seats on the list with #BothVotesSNP
As for the assertion that 'the SNP are projected to do worse in the regions in 2021', let the projection for the just released JLPartners poll put that nonsense to bed, as SNP would more than double its list seats, and that's still not fully #BothVotesSNP as there's a 4.4% gap.
ISP seems to be relying on the old adage that if you tell an untruth enough times, people will start to believe it.
Unionists win seats because AMS is a PR system designed to ensure parties win seats based on support: nothing to do with 'tactical voting', which is impossible.
Unionists win seats because AMS is a PR system designed to ensure parties win seats based on support: nothing to do with 'tactical voting', which is impossible.
The idea that #BothVotesSNP 'lets unionists (directed by Westminster bosses) tactically vote' to win seats is unadulterated tripe.
Maybe the ISP imagines unionist voters can be controlled and directed to vote for parties in the way they fantasise SNP voters can to vote for them.
Maybe the ISP imagines unionist voters can be controlled and directed to vote for parties in the way they fantasise SNP voters can to vote for them.
As ever, with the fringe parties, always look for the small print upon which their fairytale castles of sand are built:
'ISP...gets 50% of the SNP vote'??!
This is the point where any sensible voter not down the list party rabbit hole should have the sense to stop listening.
'ISP...gets 50% of the SNP vote'??!
This is the point where any sensible voter not down the list party rabbit hole should have the sense to stop listening.
Let's look at the North East discussed in the video, if the ISP exceeds any rational expection, projections with this new poll just shows a potential SNP list seat lost to the Lib Dems on an 8% defection from the SNP to ISP (as well as handing a South SNP seat to the Tories).
Vote ISP (AFI-Solidarity, or whatever) at your peril: you may just find you've actually helped hand a potential SNP list seat to the unionists.
Projections show SNP could win in 6 of the 8 regions.
*Anywhere* the ISP stands can risk SNP seats.
Projections show SNP could win in 6 of the 8 regions.
*Anywhere* the ISP stands can risk SNP seats.
Risk posed by fringe parties splitting vote & handing unionists SNP seats is exactly why it's such a foolish idea.
We've just seen the difference the ISP can make in one region, giving a potential SNP seat to unionists
'Imagine if this was to happen all over Scotland' - indeed!
We've just seen the difference the ISP can make in one region, giving a potential SNP seat to unionists
'Imagine if this was to happen all over Scotland' - indeed!
Again, the fringe party line is pushed that we can assume the SNP can rely on constituencies alone, so the list vote is 'free' to gamble. Same message in 2016 - SNP list vote peeled away, majority lost.
Interesting the ISP doesn't consider the Greens part of the 'indy bloc'...
Interesting the ISP doesn't consider the Greens part of the 'indy bloc'...
Thus ISP's claim that it's a choice between voting SNP2 to 'let unionists in' or ISP2 to kick them out, is completely false & misleading. They talk about 'honesty', yet fail to point out the most likely result in voting for them is *adding* to unionists by splitting the SNP vote.
The irony is that a vote for the ISP might actually cost us an indy majority in parliament, their stated priority (we'll leave aside, for the moment, the harsh reality that the UK gov don't give a damn how many seats any indy party other than the SNP get, whether Green or ISP).
Underlying all this 'tactical voting' talk is the elephant in the room: if the goal really is to 'maximise the indy majority in parliament' by voting for a 'list only' party, then there's actually no reason for the ISP to exist at all: Greens perform that function perfectly well.
Let's indulge ourselves in the ISP's fantasy & imagine 'just 50%' of SNP voters can be redirected at will, but this time to the Greens, instead of ISP.
Projecting form this new poll, we see the Greens now on 30 seats, which makes the mere 18 that the ISP would gain seem paltry.
Projecting form this new poll, we see the Greens now on 30 seats, which makes the mere 18 that the ISP would gain seem paltry.
If it really is about #MaxTheYes or getting that supermajority with a 'list vote strategy', these parties should wind up now & urge their supporters to vote Green
If they think seat projections with 50% of SNP voters defecting to Greens is insane, well, you can fill in the rest!
If they think seat projections with 50% of SNP voters defecting to Greens is insane, well, you can fill in the rest!
Again, 'others' still on 1% in this latest poll: no ISP in sight.
And ISP & similar pop up outfits seriously expect SNP voters to gamble an SNP majority next May on absurd notion that one of these parties can leap from 0% in polls to 5-10% needed to even add *one* indy seat?
And ISP & similar pop up outfits seriously expect SNP voters to gamble an SNP majority next May on absurd notion that one of these parties can leap from 0% in polls to 5-10% needed to even add *one* indy seat?
